Evaluation And Prediction Of The Effect Of The Adjustment And Implementation Of The Fertility Policy In Hebei Province

Population problem has always been the focus of the government and people.After the founding of the People's Republic of China,the rapid growth of China's population has caused a great negative impact on the state and local.In order to alleviate the population pressure,China began to implement the family planning policy in 1978.However,with the passing of time,especially in recent years after entering the 21 st century,population problems have become increasingly prominent,such as the total fertility rate,the decrease of the labor force,and the aging of the population.In 2014,Hebei province began to adjust its birth policy and implement the "one-child policy",and officially implemented the "universal two-child policy" on January 1,2016.In May 2021,the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to further optimize the birth policy and implement the "three-child policy",and Hebei province also issued the supporting policy of "three-child policy".This marks the birth policy of Hebei province has entered a new stage.Population plays a vital role in economic development.Hebei Province,as a province with a large population in China,has an important position in the economic development of the country.Therefore,it is particularly important to study the effect of the adjustment of fertility policy in Hebei Province and forecast the development trend of hebei province's future population.In order to better study the impact of the universal two-child policy on the population of Hebei Province and the development of the population in Hebei Province in the future,this thesis mainly does the following work:1.Determine the population evaluation indicators: total population,birth rate,natural population composition,etc.,and establish the evaluation policy model,i.e."project-post-implementation" comparative analysis method;2.Through the comparison of fa-fgm(1,1)model and SVM model,it is proved that fa-fgm(1,1)model has higher prediction accuracy by finding the optimal order of fractional gray model with classical GM(1,1)model and firefly swarm optimization method.Therefore,this model is used to predict the population situation of Hebei province without implementing the universal two-child policy,and the prediction results are compared with the actual results,so as to analyze the impact of the universal two-child policy on the population of Hebei Province.3.Since the fractional model is not suitable for long-term prediction,this thesis adopts the g M-SVM combined model to forecast the population of Hebei Province in the next 30 years,and uses the new weighting method of variance reciprocal method to assign weights to each model.4.Based on the results obtained in the above two parts,analyze and draw conclusions,and give targeted countermeasures and suggestions.The conclusions are as follows:First of all,in terms of the effect of the universal two-child policy:(1)The total population has increased slightly and steadily,but the effect of the birth rate is not as expected.In spite of the overall population in hebei province during the second child policy was slowly rising trend,but the birth rate is not as expected has a positive effect,but gradually appear negative effects,among them by far the most negative effects when reached 6.6,and over time,and the trend of deepening the degree,the birth rate effect is far less than the expected results;(2)The ratio of male to female is balanced,but the pressure of rearing is more serious.In recent years,due to the change of people's ideas,the ratio of male to female gradually tends to balance,and the positive and negative effects remain within 1.The maximum positive effect was 16.2,14.0 and 15.3,respectively,and the effect degree gradually deepened over time.This indicates that the pressure of social and labor support is not alleviated with the adjustment of the family policy,but becomes more serious.Secondly,in terms of the forecast of the future population trend of hebei province:(1)although the total population of hebei province will show an upward trend in the next 30 years,both the children population and the labor population will show a general trend of rapid decline in the future.In 2050,the children population of Hebei province will decrease by1.0053 million,and the labor force population will decrease by 6.8853 million.(2)Imbalance of sex ratio.Although now the sex ratio is still within the normal range,according to the forecast,according to the results of hebei province in the future may appear sex ratio imbalance,beyond the normal range,the sex ratio of 107.6 started in 2044 and 2050 sex ratio will be as high as 113.1,serious beyond the normal range,if do not take relevant measures,in hebei province will face a serious problem of "man","Leftover men" may become a major obstacle to the population development of Hebei Province.(3)The population problem in Hebei province will be the most serious around 2035.According to the forecast results,2036 and 2037 will be the peak of the elderly population and the lowest of the labor force population,with the population of 26.256,500 and 44.405,500,respectively.2035 is an important node for China to basically achieve the goal of socialist modernization.Therefore,the government of Hebei Province and relevant departments should pay attention to the relevant population problems and prevent the phenomenon of population crisis in 2035.If the population burden period enters,it will be difficult to get out,which is undoubtedly unfavorable to the social and economic development of Hebei Province.