Research On Value Evaluation Of Biomedical Enterprises Based On FCFF And B-S Combined Model

With the promotion of Chinese medical insurance reform and the policy of centralized drug procurement,as well as the continuous improvement of the innovative drug policy environment,the Chinese biomedical industry is shifting from focusing on the production of chemical generic drugs to focusing on innovation and "combination of imitation and innovation".This makes the features of Chinese biomedical companies with high uncertainty,high risk,and high return stand out,and traditional enterprise value assessment methods are difficult to accurately assess the value of such enterprises.Among them,the relative valuation method is limited by the difficulty of finding comparable companies and reliance on market prices,which is likely to distort the valuation results;although the absolute valuation method is separated from the subjective sentiment of the market and evaluates the value based on the profit creation ability,this model is mainly based on historical data,and it is difficult to identify and evaluate the impact of future uncertainties on enterprise value.The bias of valuation results brought by traditional valuation methods may affect the judgment of various stakeholders on the value of enterprises and harm investment,M&A,and other corporate behaviors and investor sentiment.Therefore,this thesis attempts to use the B-S model in the real options method to assess the potential value of biomedical companies,and then combine the FCFF model to assess the overall enterprise value.During the model building process,improvements were made to the classic real options model to assess the value of biomedical companies in the context of industrial transformation as accurately as possible.The thesis uses the research methods like quantitative research,qualitative research,case study,and comparative analysis to study how the FCFF and B-S combination model can be applicated in the evaluation of biomedical enterprises.Firstly,this thesis discusses the basic principles of FCFF and B-S models and their applicability in the value assessment of biomedical enterprises,and then builds a basic model of the combination of the two.Subsequently,given the application status of the B-S model and the limitations of the classic B-S model,this thesis improves the basic model from the following two aspects: introducing a probabilistic riskadjusted discounted cash flow model to evaluate the key parameter S in the B-S model;based on fuzzy mathematics,constructing a fuzzy B-S model,from solving the unique value of the estimate to solving the change interval and the most likely value of the estimate.Finally,this thesis applies the improved FCFF and B-S combination model to the corporate value evaluation of Fosun Pharma,compares and analyzes the different valuation results obtained from the single model and the combined model,before and after the improvement of the combined model,and analyzes the parameters that affect the valuation results,performs sensitivity analysis on the important parameters of the model.Based on the above analysis results,this thesis draws the key findings: the improved FCFF and B-S combined model can more accurately and completely evaluate the value of biomedical enterprises;the probabilistic risk adjustment model can comprehensively consider the internal and external information affecting the value of the underlying asset,and estimate the present value S of the underlying asset in a scientific and standardized manner;introducing the fuzzy theory and constructing fuzzy B-S model enables a greater degree of uncertainty to be taken into account,while providing investors with the possible range of stock price changes,further enhancing the accuracy and reference significance of valuation results.Based on these two improvements,the B-S model can better evaluate the potential value of the company,and then be combined with the FCFF model to comprehensively evaluate the overall value of biomedical companies.