Prediction Of Grain Yield In Hubei Province Based On Time Series Analysis

Agriculture is fundamental to national production and life.By the end of 2020,the 14 th Five-Year Plan will explain the key to promoting the modernization of agriculture and rural areas,mainly improving the quality,efficiency and competitiveness of agriculture,and steadily upgrading the modernization level of agricultural industry chain and supply chain.The premise of improving agricultural industry chain and supply chain is the scientific prediction of food production and output,which provides technical support for the formulation of relevant policies and measures by government departments at all levels.In view of this,this paper uses the time series analysis model to forecast the grain yield in Hubei Province,which provides reference for relevant departments to formulate sustainable development policies in the future.In this paper,ARIMA time series analysis model is used to analyze,test,optimize and forecast the grain yield in Hubei Province.In this paper,the method of sequence chart test,difference method,unit root test and residual test are used to make the grain yield series stable,carry on the modeling analysis,predict the future grain yield and draw the trend chart.The data in this paper are selected from the 1981-2020 grain yield data of Hubei Province in the official website of National Bureau of Statistics.Python and Eviews software are used to study the prediction of grain yield in Hubei Province.In short,this paper takes the grain yield data of Hubei Province as the research object,and uses the time series analysis model ARIMA model as the analysis method to better predict the data in the short term,and then better serve for agricultural modernization.