Simulation Of Historical Strong Earthquake Recurrence In Beijing,Tianjin And Hebei Regions And Analysis Of Disaster Losses

The coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the construction of the "the Belt and Road" and the development of the Yangtze River economic belt are three major national strategies in the new era of China.However,in the process of social and economic development in these regions,their earthquake safety can not be ignored.In history,there have been two major earthquakes in this area which named the SanhePinggu Earthquake(Ms8.0)in 1679 and the Tangshan earthquake(Ms 7.8)in 1976.Both of them caused huge casualties and economic losses,and even had a significant impact on the social economy and politics at that time.the Sanhe-Pinggu Earthquake(Ms8.0)is the largest recorded magnitude earthquake around Beijing.The earthquake caused numerous house collapses and 45,500 people died.According to the total population estimate at that time(over 7 million people),the proportion of deaths was as high as0.65 %.Tangshan earthquake caused a large number of houses collapse and infrastructure damage in Tangshan City,resulting in 242,000 deaths,16,400 serious injuries,and economic losses of more than 10 billion yuan.With the development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the seismic capacity of various hazard-bearing bodies has been significantly improved compared with the past,but the density and population density of hazard-bearing bodies are also unprecedented.What kind of social and economic losses will be caused if a major earthquake occurs in this area? Therefore,in this paper,two major earthquakes with Sanhe-Pinggu Earthquake(M8.0)and Tangshan earthquake(Ms 7.8)are " recurrence in situ".Using the parameters of the two earthquakes and based on the data of the hazard-bearing bodies under the current level of economic and social development,the possible casualties and economic losses caused by the two earthquakes are estimated,and the characteristics and causes of earthquake disaster losses are analyzed,which can provide reference for the risk prevention of earthquake disaster and emergency preparedness in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.This paper collects the seismic damage data of the Sanhe-Pinggu Earthquake and the Tangshan earthquake,Including the basic parameters of the two earthquakes,the scope of impact,seismogenic faults,buildings and infrastructure damage,earthquake casualties and economic losses.Based on the 2010 building kilometeric grid data and population kilometeric grid in earthquake emergency database and updated Building kilometeric Grid Data by Building Statistical Yearbook 2019.Updated population kilometeric grid data to 2019 by using population statistics,and optimized its spatial and temporal distribution by using population heat map which more conform with population mobility characteristics.At the same time,the seismic fortification data,land use data and reset unit price data of BeijingTianjin-Hebei region are also collected for seismic capacity zoning classification and economic loss calculation and analysis.Based on the updated exposure data,use the improved earthquake casualties evaluation model and direct economic loss evaluation model to analyze the earthquake disaster loss of Sanhe-Pinggu Earthquake(M8.0)and Tangshan earthquake(M7.8).At the same time,combined with the change of the seismic capacity of local hazard-affected bodies and population distribution,the causes of economic losses and casualties are analyzed.The data of the analysis results of this paper have certain reference value for disaster prevention and mitigation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.