The Impact Of Temperature Change On Green Economic Growth Under The Climate Impact

At present,China’s economy has entered a stage of high-quality development.While maintaining sustainable economic development,green development,which combines resource conservation and environmental pollution control,has become the development goal of China’s economy.At the same time,rising global temperatures have had a huge impact on people’s lives and economic development.Under these two non-negligible double backgrounds,this paper takes green total factor productivity as the proxy index of green economic growth,and studies the impact of climate change on green total factor productivity.In this paper,the relevant data of 30 provinces(except Xizang,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)from 2005 to 2019 are selected,and the SBM-GML model containing the non-expected output is used to measure the green total factor productivity of China’s provinces,which is decomposed into the change of technological progress and the change of technical efficiency.The green total factor productivity is analyzed from the perspective of the whole and the east,middle and western regions.On this basis,the green total factor productivity is taken as the proxy variable of green economic growth,the temperature interval variable is constructed according to the daily average temperature and the climate effect is identified by using the temperature change.Based on the two-way fixed effect model of control time and individual,the influence of climate change on green total factor productivity is studied,and the heterogeneity of east,middle,west and north and south regions is analyzed.The conclusions are as follows:(1)From 2005 to 2019,the green total factor productivity of China is in the growth stage,and the eastern region is the highest,followed by the central and western regions,indicating that the overall green economic growth is mainly driven by the eastern region.The index decomposition shows that the growth of green total factor productivity is mainly driven by technological progress.(2)On the whole,the impact of climate change on green total factor productivity shows different characteristics in different temperature ranges.When the temperature is lower than 6℃and higher than 30℃,climate change has a negative impact on green total factor productivity.At 6-30℃,climate change has a positive impact on green total factor productivity.(3)From the regional perspective of the eastern,central and western regions,the impact of climate change on green total factor productivity is not the same in different regions.In the temperature range of12-18℃,18-24℃ and 24-30℃,climate change in the eastern region has a significant positive impact on green total factor productivity,while the central region has a significant negative impact.In the western region,when the temperature range is less than 6℃and more than 30℃,climate change has a significant negative effect on green total factor productivity.(4)From the regional perspective of the north and south,the north and south regions show different positive and negative significance in different temperature ranges.In the northern region,the temperature range below-12℃,-6-0℃and 6-12 ℃ shows a significant negative influence,and the temperature range between 18-24℃ shows a significant positive influence.In the southern region,the temperature range of-12--6 ℃ and 0-6℃ shows a significant negative influence,while the temperature range of 6-12℃,12-18℃and 24-30℃ shows a significant positive influence.Based on the above research,the following suggestions are put forward:(1)Take the road of green and low-carbon development,improve the efficiency of energy conservation and emission reduction,and strengthen the adjustment of energy structure.(2)Implement the concept of green development,vigorously develop green and low-carbon industries,and intensify industrial restructuring.(3)Make targeted environmental regulations and adopt adaptive behaviors to adapt to climate change.