Study On Measurement And Prediction Of Economic Development Quality In The Yangtze River Economic Belt

The report to the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that China’s economic development has been transformed from a stage of high-speed growth to a stage of high-quality development.The emphasis on high-quality economic development once again means that high-quality development has become a new strategic theme of our current economic development.As the main force of China’s high-quality development and the aorta of the new dual-cycle development pattern,the Yangtze River Economic Belt is the most dynamic and strategic economic belt in China.In order to take targeted measures to promote the high quality development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,we must measure the quality of its economic development.Firstly,by sorting out the research results of scholars at home and abroad,on the basis of relevant concepts and theoretical analysis,the connotation of the quality of economic development is defined,and the economic development status of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is analyzed.On the basis of indepth understanding of the new development concept,combined with the theory of macroeconomic stability,A relatively complete measurement index system affecting the quality level of economic development is constructed from six levels of innovative development,coordinated development,green development,open development,shared development and stable development.The entropy weight TOPSIS method is used to measure and analyze the quality level of economic development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2008 to 2021.The research results show that:Open development is the second largest dimension affecting the quality of economic development,the third is shared development dimension and coordinated development dimension,the weight of the fourth place are respectively economic stability and green development level,on this basis,the time evolution analysis of the development index of each dimension.It is found that the growth rate of shared development index is relatively large,indicating that people’s living standards will be improved greatly from 2008 to 2021.Based on the calculation results of the economic development quality of the Yangtze River Economic Belt region,GM(1,1)model,ARIMA(2,1,0)model and ARIMA-GM combined model were established respectively to forecast the prospects of the comprehensive level of the economic development quality of the region.The results showed that:The prediction accuracy of ARIMA(2,1,0)model is obviously lower than that of GM(1,1)model,and the prediction accuracy of ARIMA-GM combined model is improved to a certain extent compared with GM(1,1)model.Finally,it is considered that the prediction effect of ARIMA-GM combined model is better.The economic development quality index of the region in the next five years predicted by this combination model shows a relatively gentle upward trend.Finally,according to the conclusions drawn from the study,countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from six aspects,namely,strategic support for scientific and technological innovation,narrowing the regional development gap,focusing on ecological civilization construction,expanding regional trade exchanges,strengthening the guarantee of regional people’s livelihood and promoting the stability of the economic market,so as to promote the high-quality development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.