Research On Supply Chain Interruption Impact And Recovery Strategy Simulation Based On System Dynamics

With the deepening of globalization and the changing internal and external environment of enterprises,supply chain stability has become a part of the business process that cannot be ignored.In recent years,natural disasters such as typhoons and mudslides and emergencies such as epidemics and terrorist attacks have occurred one after another around the world,causing serious damage to the supply chain.In particular,the new coronavirus outbreak in the past two years has disrupted the supply chain of many industries.Once a node in the supply chain is interrupted,the whole supply chain will be paralyzed.Supply chain disruption is an unavoidable problem for enterprises.Enterprises must face up to the risk of supply chain disruption.Based on the research on supply chain interruptions at home and abroad,this dissertation takes a four-level supply chain composed of individual suppliers,manufacturers,distributors and retailers as the research object,selects three indicators of "inventory","profit" and "order delivery" to measure the degree of damage caused by interruptions to the supply chain,and uses the system dynamics method to build a simulation model for simulation analysis.Firstly,clarify the purpose of modeling,define the key variables of the supply chain interruption system,construct a causal loop diagram,and show the interrelationship between variables and the dynamic influence process of variables.Secondly,the flow rate of each subsystem of the supply chain system is basically built into the tree model,and the traffic stock graph is constructed by embedding operation,that is,the system dynamics model.The relevant simulation equations and parameters are then set to test the validity of the model.Finally,different interruption scenarios are set up to simulate and analyze the interruption of the supply chain,the impact of different types of interruption on the overall performance of the supply chain is studied,and the recovery strategy of the standby logistics warehouse is proposed,and the simulation verifies its effectiveness.The results of system dynamics simulation show that:(1)The disruption impact will spread in both directions along the upstream and downstream of the supply chain,and the node closest to the disruption will be affected first;(2)The disruption in the downstream of the supply chain causes more damage to the supply chain than the disruption in the upstream of the supply chain.The occurrence of sales disruption has the greatest impact on the overall supply chain,and any disruption will have an impact on the overall performance of the supply chain.The higher the substitution effect is,the stronger the mitigation effect is.When the substitution effect is 50 %,it can play a good mitigation effect.(3)The logistics reserve warehouse strategy can alleviate the impact of disruption.This dissertation discusses the impact of interruptions in different locations of the supply chain on the supply chain,and draws corresponding management implications,which is conducive to the relevant node enterprises to attach importance to the impact of interruptions and enhance the overall awareness of the supply chain.The results of the simulation analysis of the standby logistics warehouse strategy provide a reference for what kind of interruption mitigation strategy enterprises adopt.