Research On The Rescue Ability Evaluation Of Professional Emergency Rescue Team Based On Probabilistic Linguistic Information

The frequency of various types of natural disasters in China,serious accidents have not been completely curbed.A variety of risks and hazards overlapping coupling resulting the security risk situation is still serious and complex,which seriously threatens the safety of people’s lives and the quality of socio-economic development.In this context,it is an important approach for minimizing the losses of disasters and accidents to improve the emergency rescue force system with special characteristics of China and enhance the effectiveness of emergency rescue.As urbanization progresses rapidly,the emergency rescue mode based on the "All Disaster,Big Emergency Response" pattern shows the development trend of complexity and specialization.It is urgent to strengthen the construction of professional emergency rescue force.At present,although the professional emergency rescue team effectively fill the shortcomings of a relatively single comprehensive fire rescue team functions,but compared to the new standard of "building an emergency rescue team that both professional and conventional,responsive,tenacious,competent" is still long distance,there still exists the limitation that the rescue capacity cannot meet the actual rescue demand of disaster and accident.Therefore,it is significant that how to accurately assess the level of rescue capability of professional emergency rescue teams for scientific planning of rescue team construction development direction and continuous improvement of professional emergency rescue disposal effectiveness.In order to improve effectively the rescue capability measurement system of professional emergency rescue teams and enhance the rationality and accuracy of the evaluation results,firstly,it combs the existing literature and related data information,summarizes the current situation and shortcomings of the rescue capability construction of professional emergency rescue teams,which lays the foundation for the subsequent evaluation study.Secondly,the existing studies are analyzed and extended from the perspectives of the description of evaluation information,the optimization model of experts and index weights,and the decision-making method with consideration of psychological behavioral factors of decision maker,then a new comprehensive similarity of probabilistic linguistic term set is defined by combining the Canberra distance measure and the cosine similarity,which provides theoretical support for the construction of the evaluation model.Further,the social network analysis(SNA)method is used to screen the constituent elements of the rescue capability of professional emergency rescue teams,ultimately establishing the evaluation index system around five aspects: membership quality capability,organize and manage capability,rescue preparation capability,decisionmaking and command capability,resource guarantee capability.Next,considering the large amount of uncertain and limited reasonable expert’s knowledge involved in the rescue capability evaluation process,a multi-attribute evaluation model based on prospect theory and evaluation based on distance from average solution(EDAS)method is constructed in the probabilistic linguistic information environment.The model uses probabilistic linguistic term set(PLTS)instead of exact value to more delicately portray the ambiguity of evaluation information.On the one hand,the optimization idea of game theory is introduced to solve the experts’ weights based on the comprehensive consideration for hesitation and similarity of evaluation information.Meanwhile,the subjective and objective weights of indicators determined by the probabilistic linguistic multiplicative hierarchical analysis process(PL-MAHP)and the multi-objective planning model with minimum deviation and maximum entropy value considering the bidirectional projection closeness,which is respectively integrated to overcome the limitations of a single assignment model.On the other hand,considering the limited rational psychological behavioral characteristics of decision maker such as loss avoidance and reference dependence,it combines the prospect theory with the probabilistic linguistic EDAS method,and uses the linguistic ordered weighted average(LOWA)operator to determine the prospect reference points,which effectively enhance the objective and scientific validity of reference point selection and makes the model construction more close to the actual decision-making environment.Finally,in order to test the validity,stability and superiority of the model,we conducted sensitivity and comparative analyses based on numerical arithmetic,which aims to provide new research ideas and theoretical methods for the evaluation of rescue capability of professional emergency rescue teams.