Coupling Study Of Urbanization And Water Resources Carrying Capacity In Northwest China

The eighteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China put forward two strategies: "Strengthening the construction of ecological civilization" and "promoting the construction of new urbanization".Urbanization,as an important symbol of regional economic development level,and water resources,as the basis of ecological civilization construction,influence and interact with each other.Among them,whether regional water resources can effectively support social economic development and ecological environment construction to achieve benign resonance is the key issue in realizing regional sustainable development.Therefore,there is a complex coupling relationship between urbanization and water resources carrying capacity.The practical problem of how to realize the coordination and unification of urbanization and water resources carrying capacity has aroused wide attention.Northwest China,as the core region of the Silk Road economic construction belt and a vulnerable area of ecological environment,can realize the coordinated development of urbanization and water resources carrying capacity in the process of promoting urbanization and ecological civilization construction,which plays an important role in realizing the sustainable development of the region.In this paper,the evaluation index system of urbanization and water resources carrying capacity in Northwest China is constructed from three dimensions of population,economy and social urbanization and three dimensions of water resources,socio-economic and ecological environment.Firstly,the entropy method was used to calculate the index weight,based on which the urbanization and water resources carrying capacity index of each city(state)were calculated,and the evolution characteristics were analyzed from the two scales of time and space.Secondly,the coupling coordination degree model is introduced to analyze the spatio-temporal pattern of the coordinated development of the two systems.Then,local spatial autocorrelation is used to analyze the correlation of coupling coordination between adjacent cities.Finally,the relative development degree model is introduced to reveal the development gap between the two systems under the coordinated development level.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)From 2010 to 2020,the comprehensive development level of urbanization and water resources carrying capacity in Northwest China showed an overall upward trend,but the overall development level was low and the spatial difference was significant.On the time scale,the development indexes of urbanization and water resources carrying capacity in all regions showed the characteristics of fluctuating evolution,with significant changes during the period.In terms of spatial scale,the regions with high level of urbanization development are mainly concentrated in the central and eastern parts of the country,and the regions with high level of water resources carrying capacity are roughly distributed in the southern Qingnan region.(2)From 2010 to 2020,the coupling coordination between urbanization and water resources carrying capacity in Northwest China showed an overall rising trend,but the overall coordination level was low.During the period,the coupling coordination degree of each city(prefecture)was concentrated in the range of 0.3-0.7,which was in the stage of mild dissonance,near dissonance,run-in coordination and primary coordination.At the same time,the spatial pattern evolution of H-H and L-L agglomeration regions of coupling coordination degree was relatively stable.(3)The coordinated development gap between urbanization and water resources carrying capacity in Northwest China is different from 2010 to 2020.Most cities(prefectures)are characterized by lagging development of water resources carrying capacity.The results show that the relative development degree value of each city(state)during this period is concentrated in the interval [1.2,+ ∞),which is the development characteristic of water resources carrying capacity lag.Meanwhile,with the passage of time,the situation of water resources carrying capacity lag has not been well improved.Therefore,the cities and prefectures in northwest China should take different measures according to their own relative development type structure characteristics to promote the development level of regional coupling and coordination.