Ecosystem Service Function Assessment And Multi-Scenario Prediction In The Eastern Hubei Province Region Based On The InVEST Model

Ecosystem services are the key to regional ecological security and sustainable economic and social development.In order to meet the requirements of high-quality ecological sustainable development in the new era,this paper takes Huangshi,Huanggang and Ezhou cities in the Edong region as examples,selects land use data for 2000,2005,2010,2015 and 2020,assesses and analyses the spatial and temporal changes of ecosystem service functions of Habitat Quality,Water Yield,Sediment Delivery Ratio and Carbon Storage and Sequestration modules in the Edong region based on the InVEST3.12 model.Dissecting the ecosystem service functions of county-level administrative regions and different land-use types,The dominant factors influencing the layout of each ecosystem service function were analysed in relation to the geographic probe,Using a combination of SPSS 27.0 and Arc GIS 10.8 software to reveal the trade-offs and synergies that exist between the four functions and the important areas for integrated ecosystem services,Spatial and temporal distribution of ecosystem service functions in the Erdong region in 2040 under natural development scenarios and ecological conservation scenarios using the PLUS1.3.5model.A theoretical support and reference to help optimize the spatial layout of ecosystem service functions and improve the ecological environment and sustainable development in the Erdong region.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)During the period 2000-2020,Habitat Quality in the eastern part of the Hubei province showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing,while the standard deviation of habitat quality increased year by year,indicating that the spatial variation of habitat quality expanded,with the county with the largest mean habitat value being Yinshan County of Huanggang City(0.78).Water Yield showed an increasing trend year by year,with a total increase of 33,303×10~8m~3,and the county with the largest water production was Macheng City,Huanggang City(39,042.51×10~4m~3on average).Sediment Delivery Ratio also showed an increasing trend year by year,rising by63.24×10~8t.The county with the largest soil conservation volume was Luotian County,Huanggang City(accounting for 18.46%of the total).Carbon Storage and Sequestration showed a"downward-upward"trend,with a total decrease of 836.65×10~4t.The county with the largest amount of Carbon Storage was Macheng City of Huanggang City(accounting for 16.14%of the total).(2)Spatially,Habitat Quality shows a trend of high in the northeast and south and low in the central,southwest and northwest,consistent with the spatial distribution of Sediment Delivery Ratio,and the distribution of Habitat Quality is highly similar to the changes in land use types;water production shows a trend of high in the northeast and southwest and low in the central,consistent with the distribution of precipitation.Carbon Storage and Sequestration show a trend of high in the north-west,south-west and south-east and low in the north-east and central parts of the country,which is highly correlated with the distribution pattern of woodland.Woodland is the land use type with the highest Habitat Quality,Sediment Delivery Ratio and Carbon Storage,and cropland is the land use type with the highest water production.(3)Using a geographical detector to dissect the drivers of ecosystem service functions affecting the Edong region,the results show that the intensity of human activity(0.39)is the dominant factor influencing changes in Habitat Quality,followed by slope and elevation.Mean annual precipitation(0.91)is the dominant driver of Water Yield distribution,and elevation(0.30)is the dominant factor affecting Sediment Delivery Ratio layout,followed by GDP per capita,elevation and slope.Slope(0.23)is the dominant factor influencing Carbon Storage variability,followed by elevation.Natural and socio-economic factors combine to influence the layout of ecosystem service functions in the study area.(4)Habitat Quality,Water Yield,Sediment Delivery Ratio and Carbon Storage and Sequestration are synergistically related in the study area between 2000 and 2020.Habitat Quality and Carbon Storage have the strongest synergistic relationship,with mean values above 0.4,followed by Habitat Quality and Sediment Delivery Ratio(mean value 0.28).In the integrated ecological service function zoning,Habitat Quality and Carbon Storage are both extremely important in the largest area(22.78%of the total area),and the highest priority protected area is the area of four ecosystem services that are extremely important,located in the northeast of Huanggang City,with an area of 93.44km~2.(5)Projections of future ecosystem service functions based on the PLUS model show that under the natural development scenario,Habitat Quality and Water Yield increase and Sediment Delivery Ratio and Carbon Storage decrease in the Edong area compared to 2020.Under the conservation scenario,Habitat Quality increases by1.2%,water production decreases by 0.01%,and Sediment Delivery Ratio increases by 26.39×10~6t/a compared to the natural development scenario,with woodland and grassland increasing by 1068.17×10~6t/a and 88.01×10~6t/a respectively.The Carbon Stock increased by 53.02t/km~2.