Research On Coherent Evolutionary Model Of Multi-city System Based On Human Mobility Prediction

Cities are an important engine to promote the development of human society and economy.It is of great significance to predict the evolution trend of urban system to achieve the goal of sustainability.The growth and evolution process of individual cities is not only affected by the natural growth or extinction of their own population,but also affected by inter-city population migration.However,most of the current urban evolution models are relatively idealized single city growth models,which do not take into account the coupling and interaction of population migration between cities,so it is unable to effectively predict the evolution of all cities.Based on the scaling law theory,this paper studies the population migration behavior among Chinese cities,and finds that there is a sublinear scaling law relationship between the outflow flow of cities and urban population,revealing that the proportion of population loss in big cities is systematically smaller than that in small cities.In addition,the hierarchical clustering algorithm is used to divide the migration flow time series data of more than 200 cities in China,and the cities are divided into population attracting cities and population exporting cities.Then,based on the migration flow network,the Tyson polygon division algorithm and community division algorithm are used to divide cities into different urban agglomerations.It is found that the spatial distribution of Chinese cities accords with the urban center place theory.Based on the above findings,this paper proposes a population migration prediction algorithm based on the city scaling law,improves the linear assumption of urban outflow population in the past migration model,applies the sublinear scaling law relationship between urban outflow population and population found in this paper,in addition,to estimate the attractiveness of cities to migrating population,The superlinear scaling law between economic output and urban population discovered in the past is applied.Compared with previous models,the model proposed in this paper can better predict the inter-city migration flow and the evolution trend of urban population in China,so as to explain the heterogeneity of urban population development of different sizes.