Study On The Tracking Ability Of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors

Cardiovascular disease(CVD)is a disease of the heart and blood vessels.It is currently one of the most deadly diseases.Both overweight and hypertension are associated risk factors for cardiovascular disease.Therefore,it is important to track subjects’ overweight and hypertension and study racial differences in the distribution of overweight and hypertensioncan.The research result may provide a theoretical basis for the intervention measures for reducing the different ethnic women’s risk of dying from disease of heart head blood-vessel in future.This thesis mainly studies the NGHS dataset to track 2378 adolescent girls of different races.The rank-tracking probability and the rank-tracking probability ratio are calculated to quantitatively measure the ability of tracking the health status of subjects in the longitudinal study,and to evaluate the temporal trends of the conditional distributions of the BMI and SBP.Furthermore,racial differences of tracking abilities in BMI and SBP are studied.And the tables of the estimated RTPs for BMI and SBP are obtained given race and a range of different ages for this population of adolescent girls,which could be useful for further research.Finally,based on the understanding of the two tracking indices,a logistic regression model is established to predict the probability of hypertension in late youth when subjects were overweight and suffering from hypertension in early youth.There are three points found from this study.(1)The tracking ability of adolescent girls’ s BMI of decreases as the tracking time increases,and the tracking ability is stronger in black girls in comparison with white girls.(2)The tracking ability of adolescent girls’ SBP decreases with the increase of time interval,and there is no significant difference between the tracking abilities of SBPs in two races.(3)The probability of hypertension could be reduced by decreasing BMI in late adolescence for girls of both races who were overweight and had hypertension in early adolescence.This study may provide methods and ideas for tracking and controlling risk factors for cardiovascular disease.