Study On Anthropogenic Climate Change Disturbance Effect Of Agricultural Total Factor Productivity In China

In recent years,due to the intensification of climate change,extreme weather and climate events occur frequently,which have a serious impact on the natural ecology and human living environment,and have a serious,universal and irreversible impact on human social life and national economic construction.Anthropogenic disturbance caused by unreasonable and high-intensity production and living activities has become the main cause of global climate change,and anthropogenic climate change has attracted the attention of all sectors of society.Agriculture is the interweaving of economic reproduction and natural reproduction.It directly affects national food security and social and economic development.It is one of the most sensitive industries to climate change.In the critical period when China’s agriculture is transforming into an efficient,resource-saving and environment-friendly model of sustainable development,it is necessary to actively cope with the adverse effects of climate change and maintain the sustainable growth of agricultural economy.In the context of growing agricultural and environmental challenges,increasing agricultural productivity is critical to raising global living standards and advancing sustainable food production.In-depth analysis of the anthropogenic climate change disturbance effect of China ’s agricultural total factor productivity is helpful to alleviate climate change,raise the growth rate of agricultural total factor productivity and promote coordinated development of agricultural economic development,resource conservation and environmental protection.Based on externality theory,climate change economics theory and total factor productivity theory,with planting industry as the main research object,this thesis uses literature research,comparative research and empirical research to sort out the literature related to natural climate change and anthropogenic climate change interference,climate simulation,agricultural total factor productivity,and the impact of climate change on agricultural production.Based on the definition of natural climate variability,anthropogenic climate disturbance and agricultural total factor productivity,combined with CMIP6 climate simulation data,historical climate data and agricultural production input data,this thesis constructs real situation and counterfactual situation,and uses Ortiz-Bobea measurement method to analyze the disturbance effect of anthropogenic climate change on China ’s agricultural total factor productivity from 2000 to 2020.Through theoretical analysis and empirical test,this study draws the following main conclusions:(1)Anthropogenic perturbation is an important attribution of climate change.(2)In the actual situation,the agricultural total factor productivity shows a fluctuating and rising trend,and there is a certain gap between different regions.(3)Climate change has a significant impact on agricultural total factor productivity,temperature change has an "inverted U-shaped" effect on agricultural total factor productivity growth,and precipitation change has a significant negative impact on agricultural total factor productivity.(4)Under the counterfactual situation,the agricultural total factor productivity showed a trend of fluctuation and rise,and there are some differences in agricultural total factor productivity in different regions.(5)Anthropogenic climate change inhibits agricultural total factor productivity growth to a certain extent and has significant spatial and temporal differentiation,it also shows a certain spatial agglomeration phenomenon in space.On this basis,this article put forward to further improve the adaptability to climate change,sustainable construct a green and low-carbon development system,promote the targeted development of regional agriculture.