Research On The Impact Of New Urbanization On Agricultural Total Factor Productivity In Shandong Province

At present,the development mode of China’s agricultural economy is changing from the previous extensive economy to the intensive economy.At the same time,the agricultural production mode is also undergoing major changes.In the face of the limitation of resources and energy,we need to focus on the long-term sustainable development of agriculture.The change of agricultural total productivity is an important manifestation of the quality and long-term sustainability of agricultural development.Therefore,Studying the change of agricultural total factor productivity is one of the ways to predict the direction of agricultural development in the future.China has vigorously promoted the process of agricultural and rural modernization,and great achievements have been made in the development of new urbanization.As a major agricultural province,Shandong Province actively carries out agricultural modernization and constantly realizes the transformation from traditional urbanization to new urbanization.With the development of new urbanization,agricultural production mode and structure are also changing.What impact will the development of new urbanization have on agricultural total factor productivity? Therefore,it is of great significance to study the impact of new urbanization on agricultural total factor productivity in Shandong Province.Finally,based on the empirical study of the impact of new-type urbanization on the level of agricultural productivity in Shandong Province,this paper makes an empirical analysis on the new-type urbanization in Shandong Province.Firstly,12 evaluation indexes are selected from the four dimensions of population,economy,society and ecology,and the comprehensive development level of new urbanization is calculated by entropy method,which is combined with charts for time series analysis and ranking;Secondly,using the DEA Malmquist index method,the total output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery is selected as the output variable,and the input variables are selected from the four aspects of land,labor force,machinery and chemical fertilizer to calculate the agricultural total factor productivity,which is further decomposed into agricultural technological progress and agricultural technological efficiency.Shandong Province and various regions are analyzed from the perspective of factor decomposition and time series evolution;Finally,based on the calculation results,this paper selects the panel data of 16 prefecture level cities in Shandong Province from 2010 to 2019 for empirical analysis,and uses the fixed effect model to analyze the impact of new towns on agricultural total factor productivity in Shandong Province from the whole and region.The research conclusions are as follows:(1)the comprehensive development level of new urbanization in Shandong Province is increasing year by year,but the development level of various regions is uneven,with obvious regional differences.The development level of Jiaodong and central Shandong is high,but southern Shandong and Northern Shandong have high development potential and trend.(2)The agricultural total factor productivity of Shandong Province fluctuated and increased in the sample period,which brought the sustainable progress and development of agriculture.On the whole,the cumulative growth rate of agricultural total factor productivity shows an upward trend in most years;By region,the agricultural total factor productivity index of each region is greater than 1,but the index size is different.(3)The regression results show that on the whole,the development of new urbanization in Shandong Province has a significant positive effect on the improvement of agricultural total factor productivity.At the same time,the level of economic development and industrial structure also have a significant role in promoting agricultural total factor productivity.The level of financial support for agriculture and education investment may promote agricultural total factor productivity;From the perspective of regional analysis,the development of new urbanization in Jiaodong,central Shandong,southern Shandong and Northern Shandong has a significant role in promoting the improvement of agricultural total factor productivity,which is consistent with Shandong Province as a whole,but the role of each region in promoting agricultural total factor productivity is slightly different and there are regional differences.Finally,based on the research conclusions,it is proposed to establish and improve the financial support policy for agricultural development,improve the land use policy,develop characteristic industries according to regional differences,pay attention to new urbanization such as industrial transformation and upgrading,and promote the agricultural total factor productivity of Shandong Province,so as to realize the better and faster development of agriculture in Shandong Province.