Study On The Changes And Influencing Factors Of TFP Growth Rate Of Grain Production In Jilin Province

Food security is related to national development,social stability,and the well-being of the people.As a major agricultural province and an important grain producing area in China,Jilin Province’s stable and high grain yield is of great strategic significance for ensuring national food security.At present,the "investment depression" effect formed by the low land cost,low energy cost and low environmental cost that Jilin Province relies on is disappearing,the demographic dividend is also declining,the constraints of resources,environment and production factors are becoming increasingly tight,and the input of production factors has less and less effect on the increase of grain production.New ways are needed to improve the grain output of Jilin Province.Therefore,under the new food security concept of "ensuring basic self-sufficiency of grains and absolute safety of grain rations" proposed by the country,analyzing the TFP of grain production in Jilin Province is of great practical significance.First of all,the development history and current situation of grain production in Jilin Province are reviewed.According to the changes in grain production and planting area in Jilin Province,grain production in Jilin Province is divided into four development stages,and the current situation of total grain output,grain yield per unit area,grain planting structure,fertilizer application,total agricultural machinery driving force of grain production,and labor input is analyzed.Secondly,measure the TFP growth rate of grain production in Jilin Province.Using the Stochastic Frontier Analysis(SFA)method,it is estimated that the TFP of grain production in Jilin Province increased by an average of 2% from 1991 to 2020.The TFP of grain production in nine regions of Jilin Province is in a relatively stable state,with no significant change.Except for Baicheng City and Yanbian Prefecture,the growth rate of TFP of grain production in other cities such as Changchun City,Jilin City,Siping City,Liaoyuan City,Tonghua City,Baishan City,and Songyuan City has shown a slight downward trend.Thirdly,analyze the influencing factors of the TFP growth rate of grain production in Jilin Province.Firstly,unit root test and cointegration test were conducted on the panel data used in the analysis.Then,Tobit model was used to analyze and conclude that under the same conditions,the TFP growth rate of grain production in Jilin Province was significantly positively correlated with agricultural research investment,per capita financial expenditure on agriculture,urbanization rate,development level of water facilities,scale of farmers’ production and operation,and degree of economic development,while significantly negatively correlated with grain planting structure.Finally,based on the conclusions of the previous study,the corresponding policy recommendations are proposed: increase investment in agricultural research,adhere to science and technology to promote agriculture;Optimizing the grain planting structure;Continue to increase financial support for agriculture,and continuously strengthen and improve preferential agricultural policies;Coordinating the relationship between urbanization and grain production;Strengthen the construction of farmland and water conservancy infrastructure;Promoting the realization of large-scale management of grain production;Comprehensively promote farmers’ income increase to improve the TFP of grain production.