Research On PPP Project Income Of New Energy Park Factory Construction Based On System Dynamics

With the acceleration of public infrastructure projects in China,the demand for funds has increased.Meanwhile,the financial pressure on local governments has been growing year by year.The contradiction between the demand for funds for the development of public infrastructure by local governments and the shortage of government finance has gradually become prominent.As a result,the PPP model has gradually become one of the main modes for local investment in public infrastructure projects.In recent years,China’s new energy industry has developed rapidly.At the same time,with the proposal of the "dual carbon" goal,local governments have begun to promote the development of PPP projects for the construction of new energy industrial parks to advance the development of the new energy industry.However,due to the unclear risk sharing and long investment recovery period of existing PPP projects,the development of PPP projects for the construction of new energy industrial park factories has been limited to some extent.Therefore,in order to promote the landing rate of PPP projects for the construction of new energy industrial park factories and better understand the operation mode of such projects,it is necessary to establish a scientifically effective model for estimating the benefits of PPP projects for the construction of new energy industrial park factories,which is further analyzed in this article.This article first identifies the preliminary benefit indicators of PPP projects for the construction of new energy industrial park factories through a literature review.Through frequency analysis,expert interviews,and questionnaires,relevant benefit indicators for such projects are selected.The final benefit indicator system for PPP projects for the construction of new energy industrial park factories is obtained.Based on system dynamics theory and the life cycle cost theory of the project,a benefit system model for PPP projects for the construction of new energy industrial park factories is constructed.The model is simulated and analyzed using an actual case,and the dynamic changes of the benefit system model are summarized under different scenario assumptions.Finally,based on the simulation results,conclusions and suggestions are drawn,which provide important references for the government and social capital in project decision-making.Based on the simulated results of actual cases,it can be seen that the key to the operation period of a new energy park factory construction PPP project lies in how to attract investment and increase the rental rate of the park.The rental rate and the income of the new energy park factory construction PPP project show a positive correlation,while considering the economic and resource level of the city itself.Therefore,the development of the park needs to determine the positioning of park enterprises and enhance their willingness to settle in.At the same time,in the face of force majeure events,the income of the park factory construction PPP project can still maintain a normal trend after a short-term impact.Therefore,based on the consideration of the distribution of benefits and risks between the government and social capital,in the pre-decision stage of the project,it is necessary to rationally determine the functional positioning of the park and the support of the city’s economic and resource levels,make scientifically-based decisions on the franchise period of the project,and reasonably distribute the income of the park factory construction PPP project.