| Distributed energy stations are fueled by natural gas distributed energy utilization system in the user terminal. A user can directly meet the diverse needs of energy cascade utilization of clean energy way, because environmental protection and efficient is widely used in various industrial parks. With eighteen steady since China’s economic growth, energy demand is also rising rapidly, will continue to rise sharply in the next decade, to this end, the state has increased investment in energy, construction of large-scale energy base, new energy station to ensure that energy supply. However, due to the distributed energy as a new project, the development time is shorter, there are still a number of technology-related defects, so in the specific construction process inevitably there are some risks, based on this article, SS Industrial Park mainly distributed energy projects example, the introduction of the system dynamics theory, its project risk.Combining with domestic and foreign research and basic overview of system dynamics system dynamics, laid a theoretical basis for this study. SS major industrial park on the basic situation of distributed energy projects are introduced, and the risks of the project identified. The main risks identified distributed energy projects, including market risk, technology risk, policy risk, schedule risk, and financial risks in five aspects. Combined with AHP and expert scoring Risk Index System Construction of the entire project, and the right to re-calculate various indicators, build a model based on system dynamics. System Dynamics Model SS distributed energy industrial park project last, established risk assessment carried out simulation, physical model and mathematical model according to the above established simulation analysis of the project, the project faces several key risk Probability and influencing factors were analyzed appear, thus enabling control of project risks in the project implementation process. |
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