| In recent years,some demographic factors have changed,which has aroused extensive attention from both the industry and academic community.For the real estate industry,the changes of demand side are related to demographic structures.It will affect the formation mechanism of house prices.In addition,scholars hold a view that demographic changes in age structure,immigration structure and marital status are closely related to changes in house prices.Exploring the interaction between demographic structure and housing price from qualitative and quantitative perspectives is not only conducive to establishing a better theoretical framework,but also to actively guide and deal with the structural changes of population,and it can promote the development of the real estate industry.Firstly,this thesis describes the attributes,classification and related theories of demographic structure and house prices.Then the characters and development of the two in both time dimension and regional dimension are also discussed.After that,this thesis estimates the interaction between the main demographic indicators of natural structure,regional structure,social structure and house prices in 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government)from 2005 to 2019 with simultaneous equation model.In addition,further comparison of regions is also analyzed empirically.The main conclusions are:(1)From 2005 to 2019,problems of aging and less children began to emerge.This thesis investigated the relationship between ratio of children and house prices,and then found mutual extrusion effect between them.In the east,increasing house prices had greater negative effect in reducing the ratio of children.For the aging population,it didn’t have significant influence in enhancing house prices.(2)Both urbanization ratio and migration ratio were improved in this period,and they had mutual promotion effect with house prices.Among them,migration ratio contributed more to the house prices growth in the eastern of China,while in the central and western regions,the increasing urbanization ratio improved more of house prices.(3)With the increase of house prices,the age of first getting married and divorce rate continued to rise.This thesis noticed that the increase in ratio of married promoted house prices,but the increase of house prices significantly reduced the married ratio nationwide,especially that in the east.In order to deal with the structural changes of demographic characters and accelerate real estate industry development,this thesis has some suggestions:(1)In order to reduce the negative effect of rising house prices on the ratio of children and the stability of marriage,it should be supported to formulate housing policies according to local conditions.And especially,it is in need to control the rising house prices in the eastern region.(2)We need to actively respond to the aging problem,not only promote the renovation of old residential areas,but also encourage the construction of retirement home.(3)In order to release the pressure of living for the newly urbanized population and the newly migrant population,the construction of affordable housing in cities should be promoted and the development of the housing rental market should be standardized. |
