| In recent years,the aggravation of global warming has caused a series of economic,social and environmental problems,which have seriously threatened the survival and sustainable development of mankind.As the world’s second largest economy and the largest carbon emitter,Although China’s international influence is increasing;its high carbon emissions have also become the focus of international community and public opinion circles.As an important inter-provincial urban agglomeration in the west of China,Lanzhou-Xining City agglomeration is an important ecological barrier in the west of China,as well as an important industrial and energy base in the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin,which has important strategic significance for the ecological security and economic and social development in the west of China.Currently,carbon emission studies in China are mainly focused on national,provincial and economically developed urban agglomerations.Due to the lack of statistical data on energy consumption at the prefecture-level and below,there are few studies on carbon emissions in the underdeveloped urban agglomeration in the west.Therefore,this paper spatially simulated the carbon emissions from energy consumption in the Lan-Xi urban agglomeration from 1995 to 2019 by combining long-term DMSP/OLS and NPP/VIIRS nighttime light images in China.From the perspective of county scale,spatial trend analysis,coefficient of variation analysis,exploratory spatial data analysis and geographic detector were used to study the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics,spatial correlation characteristics and influencing factors of carbon emissions in Lan-Xi urban agglomeration.The results show that:(1)From the perspective of total carbon emissions,the total carbon emissions in the Lan-Xi urban agglomeration showed an increasing trend from 1995 to 2019,and the growth rate showed obvious stage characteristics,with an overall trend of rising first and then declining.Carbon emissions increased from 36.23×10~6t in 1995 to 116.61×10~6t in2019,an increase of 3.22 times.The average annual growth rate of carbon emissions was 4.79%.From the point of view of county carbon emissions,the carbon emissions at the county level of Lan-Xi urban agglomeration increased significantly,with the range of carbon emissions(10~4t)increasing from[13.4,425.4]in 1995 to[103.2,1051.4]in 2019.The lowest is Guinan county and the highest is Cheng’guan district which increased by 8.46 times and 2.47 times respectively.Carbon emissions increased by 48.92×10~4t and 625.95×10~4t respectively.From the perspective of carbon emission intensity,the carbon emission intensity of most counties and districts in The Lan-Xi urban agglomeration showed a trend of continuous decline,and the range of carbon emission intensity(t/10~4 yuan)decreased from[4.2,9.7]in 2005 to[1.6,5.0]in 2019.(2)From the perspective of spatial and temporal distribution,from1995 to 2019,the carbon emission of Lan-Xi urban agglomeration showed a spatial distribution trend of high in the east and low in the west,high in the middle and low in the north and south.High-carbon counties are mainly concentrated in densely populated and relatively developed economies.There are significant spatial differences and positive autocorrelation of carbon emissions at county level in Lan-Xi urban agglomeration,but the spatial differences are narrowing,and the positive autocorrelation shows a trend of gradually expanding.The local autocorrelation of carbon emissions at county level in the Lan-Xi urban agglomeration was stable,dominated by high-high aggregation and low-low aggregation,and the high-high aggregation was mainly concentrated in the main urban area of Lanzhou,while the low-low aggregation was distributed in Huangnan prefecture and Hainan prefecture of Qinghai province.(3)The spatial differentiation of carbon emissions in Lan-Xi urban agglomeration is influenced by multiple factors.The level of economic development always has the strongest influence on the spatial differentiation of carbon emissions.Fiscal expenditure,number of industrial enterprises above designated size and industrial structure also has significant influence on carbon emissions.The level of urbanization,population density and energy intensity have relatively weak influence on carbon emissions.After pair interaction,the influence of influencing factors is significantly enhanced compared with the explanatory power of any single influencing factor.The interaction of economic development level and number of industrial enterprises above designated size with energy intensity,industrial structure,urbanization level and population density is the main driving force leading to the continuous growth of carbon emissions.Lan-Xi urban agglomeration should be coordinated development,overall planning,according to the resources and environment carrying capacity and territorial space planning of each county,reasonable control of population density and urban development intensity.On the premise of sustained GDP growth,it is necessary to carry out macro-control on industrial structure,energy intensity,urbanization level and fiscal expenditure,so as to weaken the interaction between them and the leading factors,thus slowing down the growth rate of carbon emissions.At the same time,according to the actual situation of carbon emissions in each county,formula Refined carbon emission reduction policies and strive to reach the carbon peak as soon as possible. |
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