Study On Health Loss Due To Air Pollution In Heilongjiang Province, 2012-2021

The emphasis on air quality has been increasing in recent years,and with the implementation of various energy conservation and emission reduction measures,the results of PM_2.5 pollution control in Heilongjiang Province during 2012-2021 are excellent,however,the level of O₃ in the atmosphere is increasing,so it is particularly necessary to accurately evaluate the positive and negative effects of premature mortality on human health caused by the dramatic fluctuations of PM_2.5 and O₃ levels.In order to investigate the effects on human health caused by long time scale and short time scale exposures to PM_2.5 and O₃ in Heilongjiang Province and the resulting health economic losses,this study applied the health impact function（HIF）and the value of the statistical life（VSL）to evaluate the 2012-2021 This study applied the health impact function（HIF）and the value of the statistical life（VSL）to assess the disease burden and economic loss due to premature death from PM_2.5 and O₃ exposure in Heilongjiang Province from2012 to 2021.The spatial and temporal variability of PM_2.5 and O₃ concentrations and the number of premature deaths due to exposure were first analyzed based on air quality data in Heilongjiang Province from 2012 to 2021.The results show that PM_2.5concentrations in Heilongjiang province decreased by 50%during the study period,while O₃ pollution increased by 12.1%.The number of premature deaths avoided by short-term PM_2.5 concentration reduction（1974）was greater than the increase in premature deaths caused by O₃ concentration increase（1854）,indicating that short-term emergency measures were effective in improving the health burden of PM_2.5 pollution.Although the annual average PM_2.5 concentrations decreased rapidly,the number of premature deaths from long-term PM_2.5 exposure showed little interannual variation or even a slow upward trend,indicating that pollutant levels were not the most important factor contributing to the change in the number of premature deaths from long-term PM_2.5 exposure.Although the number of premature deaths due to long-term PM_2.5exposure（2021:187149）is larger than that due to ozone（2021:2781）,the growth rate of premature deaths due to long-term O₃ exposure is 220.3%,which is significantly larger than the growth rate of premature deaths due to PM_2.5 exposure by 10.3%,indicating that in the near future,the ozone effects on human health This indicates that in the near future,the adverse effects of ozone on human health are likely to exceed those of PM_2.5.Second,an assessment of the health economic losses due to premature deaths in Heilongjiang Province showed that the overall short-term exposure health economic losses and long-term exposure health economic losses were both on the rise.The total health economic loss of short-term exposure is greatly affected by O₃,from1.1 billion yuan in 2012 to 1.76 billion yuan in 2021,an increase of 60%,and the proportion of GDP rose from 0.1%to 0.11%;the total health economic loss of long-term exposure is greatly affected by PM_2.5 economic loss increased from 77.88billion yuan in 2012 to 113.84 billion yuan,an increase of 46.17%About,GDP share increased from 7.08%to 7.64%,an increase of about 7.9%.In addition,this study constructed a health economic loss prediction model for Heilongjiang province by using random forest and SVM models in machine learning,and the R²results of the random forest model were above 0.8 for both PM_2.5 and O₃ data test sets,indicating that the random forest prediction model has a good fit for PM_2.5 and O₃.However,the prediction results for individual cities such as Daqing,Heihe and Suihua are only 0.4 and 0.5,which indicates that the model is mostly good for O₃ prediction accuracy but there are some deviations.prediction is poorly fitted.Comparing the two models for validation,it can be concluded that the random forest model has higher accuracy and is more suitable as a health economic loss prediction model for Heilongjiang province.