Multi-Attribute Decision Making Method Based On Probabilistic Hesitant Fuzzy Sets And Its Application To CO₂ Geological Storage Location Selection

In modern industry,fossil energy is the most important energy to maintain the operation of the current industrial system,and the carbon emission caused by its combustion is the main source of atmospheric carbon enrichment in the earth’s carbon cycle system,which brings global environmental problems.Therefore,the proposal of the concept of"carbon neutrality"is also China’s responsibility in global affairs as a responsible major country.In order to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality,carbon emission,carbon emission reduction,carbon sequestration and carbon cycle are proposed from the perspective of open source interception.Among them,carbon sequestration refers to carbon capture,utilization and storage（CCUS）technology,which is currently the only technology that can achieve large-scale low-carbon utilization of fossil energy and an important part of China’s carbon neutrality goal.In CCUS technology on carbon storage location selection and evaluation is critical,the link will involve the geographical environment,the engineering environment,the influence of the external indicators,such as technical innovation,but also will be different for different choice of preference,therefore the link is filled with many complex high degree of uncertainty factors,increased a lot of difficulty for site selection evaluation.Therefore,this paper focuses on the evaluation and selection of carbon storage location from the perspective of carbon neutrality,and studies the construction of probabilistic hesitant fuzzy multi-attribute decision model and its application in the selection of CO₂geological storage location.Through the analysis of CO₂ geological stored process and site selection evaluation by CCUS technology,a new CO₂geological stored process evaluation index system is constructed based on the existing literature and investigation.The system contains 15 indicators in 5 levels.At the same time,based on the idea of prospect theory and the traditional TODIM method derived from this theory,five probabilistic hesitant fuzzy multi-attribute decision models are proposed:Probabilistic hesitant model TODIM model,probabilistic hesitant fuzzy cumulative prospect theory TODIM model,probabilistic hesitant fuzzy cumulative prospect theory GLDS model,probabilistic hesitant fuzzy cumulative prospect theory Exp TODIM model and Log TODIM model.In addition,the evaluation model built based on this paper is more complete.In the early stage of model construction,this paper will adopt the CRITIC method to first determine the weight of decision makers,so as to aggregate the group matrix.At the same time,the use of analytic hierarchy process（AHP）to calculate the subjective weight,entropy weight method to calculate the objective weight,then using mathematical aggregation method combines two weights as mixed weight method to calculate attribute weight,the attribute weights are integrated both the subjective and the objective weighting,in full consideration of the relative importance between the decision makers to attribute measure,also considering the decision matrix in the objective evaluation results,The attribute weight in this model is more scientific and reliable.Finally,the constructed model was successfully applied to the selection and evaluation of CO₂geological storage location,and the stability and feasibility of these magic properties were proved by sensitivity analysis and comparative analysis using software.