| As the goal of the currently sustainable development strategy of mankind,the essence of double carbon is to take both protecting environment and development economy into account.As the main body of the national economy,manufacturing industries have long relied on the mode of traditionally extensive development,which leads to the multiple locked predicament of resources and environment.While promoting technological innovation,green technology innovation can improve the ecological environment,which has the double dividend of green low-carbon and economic development,and is an important means to settle the dispute between improving the economy and environment.Therefore,it is urgent to promote the transformation of green technology innovation in manufacturing industries.However,green technology innovation has the dual externalities of knowledge spillover and environmental pollution,resulting in the lack of internal power for the transformation of green technology innovation in manufacturing industries,which is difficult to be realized only by relying on the market mechanism.As an externally driving mechanism for the government to solve the problem of environmental pollution,the environmental regulation can effectively stimulate manufacturing industries to realize the transformation of green technology innovation.In addition,the transformation of green technology innovation in manufacturing industries is a complex systems engineering with multiple feedback relationships,which will be affected by the subjective will of the subject and the heterogeneity of different types of environmental regulations.Therefore,it is particularly important to explore paths of transformation of green technology innovation in manufacturing industries under environmental regulations by comprehensively considering the influence of internal and external driving factors and the willingness and behavior of the subject.This research takes manufacturing industries as the main research object,defines the system of transformation of green technology innovation in manufacturing industries under environmental regulations,and divides it into four subsystems: environmental regulations,the intention of green technology innovation,the behavior of green technology innovation and the benefit of green technology innovation.By constructing the SD model of the system of transformation of green technology innovation in manufacturing industries under environmental regulations,and using Vensim software to simulate the systematical changes,the policy-oriented,willing-oriented and behavior-oriented paths of transformation of green technology innovation in manufacturing industries under environmental regulations are designed.Based on the data of transformation of green technology innovation of 30 manufacturing industries in 2019,the factor analysis and cluster analysis are used to put forward strategies for implementing policy-oriented,willing-oriented and behavior-oriented paths.On this basis,the empirical research on heavy pollution manufacturing industries is carried out in order to provide reference and reference for Chinese manufacturing industries to explore the path of sustainable development under the background of double carbon,and provide the theoretical basis for the government to formulate environmental regulation policies. |