Emission Accounting,Drivers And Reduction Path In 2004 EU Accession Countries

Ten countries,namely,Cyprus,Czechia,Estonia,Hungary,Lithuania,Latvia,Malta,Poland,Slovakia,and Slovenia,joined the European Union(EU)in 2004.Since joining,the rapid increase in trade with other EU members and the transition to an export-oriented economic model have resulted in tremendous changes in the economic structure,technological level and demographic structure of these countries.These countries have experienced rapid economic development(twice the EU-27 average),due to increasing trade with the EU.Meanwhile,they also experienced slower reductions in energy consumption(half the EU-27 average)and thus CO2 emissions.The EU’s 2050 carbon neutrality plan aims to reduce CO2 emissions by 80-95%by 2050 compared with the 1990 level.Although the 2004 EU accession countries have adopted stringent legislation to reduce CO2 emissions since 2012,the carbon neutrality target remains a challenge for these new EU members owing to their relatively underdeveloped production technology,lower energy efficiency,and less developed level of economic conditions compared with traditional EU members.Up-to-date,accurate,and uniformly formatted CO2 emission inventories are fundamental to revealing a country’s emission patterns and determining their environmental responsibilities.Considering that the 2004 EU accession countries share the same carbon neutrality goal with the EU but have different resource endowments and development contexts,a comparative analysis is worthwhile.In order to contribute to the above research gaps,this study explores the trajectories of CO2 emissions of the ten 2004 EU accession members from 2005 to 2017,and quantifies the impact of different socioeconomic factors on CO2 emissions.This research is mainly divided into three parts.First,our inventories cover 28 types of energy and 47 socioeconomic sectors,which are consistent and comparable across countries.Second,based on the up-to-date emission accounts,we quantify the contribution of four socioeconomic factors(i.e.,economic growth,energy structure,carbon intensity and economic growth)that drive the CO2 emission changes of the 2004 EU accession members over the past 13 years by employing the index decomposition analysis(IDA)method.Furthermore,we simulate 33 mitigation pathways to quantify the impact of different carbon capture and storage(CCS)installation rates and renewable energy replacement rates on CO2 emissions of these members under the low,middle,and high scenarios of energy consumption growth in 2050.The results show that:(1)The total CO2 emissions of the ten countries decreased by 7.50%from 2010(506.81 Mt)to 2016(468.78 Mt),which is lower than the average decline rate of other EU members(10.52%).Specifically,the CO2 emissions of most members declined,especially in Malta(45.36%),Slovakia(30.13%),and Latvia(13.56%).Poland,Czechia,and Hungary were the largest CO2 emitters mainly due to their large energy demand.From a sectoral perspective,electric power sector was the sector with the largest decline in emissions,and CO2 emissions from the transportation sector increased at an average annual rate of 1.51%,mainly due to its increasing energy consumption and low share of renewable energy use.(2)Although the effect of economic growth contributed the most to emission increase(15.44%),it is completely offset by the decline in emission intensity(-18.82%).(3)Scenario simulations show different emission trends for different countries,such as the Czechia,Slovakia and Slovenia,where future emissions are least affected by changes in renewable energy use.In addition,we find that these members must use more than 60%renewable energy sources to replace fossil energy combustion,and upgrade more than 50%of power plants to CCS technology.Based on the above results,we discuss the effectiveness of the EU’s existing emission reduction policies and propose targeted recommendations for the 2004 EU accession members.This study provides an initial foray into assessing the emission accounts and carbon neutrality roadmaps of the 2004 EU accession members.The findings can be utilized by policymakers in the 2004 EU accession countries and used as a reference for other countries at comparable development stages.Tailor-made mitigation strategies could be designed for individual 2004 EU accession members:In the short term,it is feasible to use cleaner alternative energy sources and connect to the European grids to increase electricity imports.When looking at the long-term,more sustainable approaches need to be considered,such as improving production technologies and increasing renewable energy use.