Inventories Of The Ammonia Emission From Agriculture And The Potential Mitigation For Future Emission

With the rapid development of economy,atmospheric contamination has become a serious problem in Shandong province.Frequent haze days have caused the deterioration of air quality and have many negative effects on people's normal life and health.As the only alkaline gas in the atmosphere,ammonia is an important precursor of atmospheric aerosols.In fact,ammonia has both advantage and disadvantage in atmosphere.The ammonia emission is mainly from agriculture.Therefore,agriculture ammonia emission is selected as the research object of this paper.In this study,we evaluated the ammonia emissions from 2001 to 2015 and analyzed the characteristics of the total emission trends,department contribution,spatial and temporal distribution,and the factors that affect the total ammonia emission.Otherwise,the future agriculture ammonia emissions and the control strategies mitigation potentials were estimated at the end of this article.This research is expected to provide scientific foundations for the development of air pollution control strategies,and it is of great importance to control the regional atmospheric hazy aerosol pollution.The main conclusions of this paper are summarized as following:From results of the agriculture ammonia emission inventory,the total ammonia emission is 930.14 kt for 2015 in Shandong.Livestock emitted 533.44 kt ammonia in 2015 and accounted for 57.35% of the total emission,represented the largest contribution.Farm-land is the second largest contribution of total emission,and the fertilizer application is the largest contribution of the emission form farm-land.Fertilizer application emitted 355.74 kt ammonia in 2015 and accounted for 38.25% of the total emission.Other sources accounted for only 4.4% of the total emission.From the total emission trends,the agriculture ammonia emission increased first and then decreased before 2009.The total emission trends after 2009 was relatively stable and slightly fluctuating.Form the contribution of different sources,beef cattle,hog,laying hen and urea is the main contribution of the total ammonia emission.From the spatial distribution,high emission was distributed in the west of Shandong(most of Heze,west and east of Jining,north of Zaozhuang,Liaocheng and most of Dezhou).However,low emission was distributed in the central and coastal region of Shandong.Form the temporal distribution,the emission is mainly affected by fertilizer application.Therefore,emission from May to August(the period when crops need to be fertilized)was highest.Results of factor decomposition show that agricultural revenue was the most important driving effect for all sources,and the primary inhibitory effect of all sources is production efficiency.Agricultural revenue and production efficiency are the key factors that affect agriculture ammonia emission,while agricultural structure adjustment,urbanization and the total population growth are the minor factors.Agricultural structure adjustment inhibited the increase of ammonia emission from livestock,farm-land and biomass burning.Urbanization was the second important inhibitory effect for all sources,and the total population growth was a driving effect for all sources.However,with the advancement of urbanization and increase of the total population,the impact from urbanization and the total population growth of total agriculture ammonia emission will expand in the future.According to the results of scenario analysis,with the increase of population and economy in Shandong,agriculture ammonia emission will continue to growth in future.Compared with S0(business as usual)scenario,the ammonia emission is reduced in S1(best available control technology)scenario.But the future emission in S1 scenario is still higher than 2015.Compared with the emission in 2015,agricultural ammonia emission is reduced in S2(strictest control technology)scenario,and it will be trending downward in future.According to the scenario analysis of livestock,the potential abatement of the development of intensivism is relatively limited(expect for the control of ammonia emission from sheep and goat).The scenario that controls each stage of manure management has great mitigation potential.The emission in this scenario is still higher than 2015,but has begun to decrease.According to the scenario analysis of farm-land,the necessary control measures for urea application and development of new fertilizers has great ammonia emission mitigation potential.