| The climate issue is a common challenge for mankind,and the demand for lowcarbon development has become the focus of global attention.General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out that China will be committed to achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,which should be included in the overall layout of ecological civilization construction.While the scale of the tourism industry continues to grow,the international community is increasingly concerned about the climate and environmental problems caused by tourism.The carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals are also one of the key indicators to measure the high quality of tourism development.Therefore,studying the relationship between tourism economy and environment,achieving balanced development of tourism with high income and low emission,measuring carbon emission and carbon sink of China’s tourism industry,and making low-carbon development scenarios Forecast are the basis and prerequisite for the sustainable development of China’s tourism industry and strengthening the construction of ecological civilization.This paper uses methods of data collection and input-output to construct a tourism satellite account and a comprehensive tourism environmental economy account to measure direct carbon emissions,indirect carbon emissions and total carbon emissions from tourism in China in 1997,2000,2002,2005,2007,2010,2012,2015,2017 and 2020.Based on different land use patterns,spatial data and carbon absorption coefficients are used to calculate the carbon sink of China’s tourism industry in combination with the area of tourism land use,and to explore the important role of forestry carbon sink.Finally,a prediction model of China’s tourism carbon emissions is constructed based on the STIRPAT model.The effects of tourism receipts,industry scale,per capita output value,tourism economic development level and energy efficiency on the total carbon emissions of tourism industry are analyzed.Combining the STIRPAT model and the scenario analysis method,this paper predicts the carbon emissions of tourism industry and its change trend under the baseline scenario,policy intervention scenario and low carbon scenario,as well as the change trend under the influence of carbon sink from 2021 to 2035.The main results and conclusions are as follows:(1)From 1997 to 2020,the ecomultiplier of China’s tourism industry decreased from 3.36 tons per million yuan in 1997 to 1.80 tons per million yuan in 2020.The eco-multiplier is smaller than the secondary industries such as electricity,heat and water production and supply,coking,gas and petroleum processing industries,and metal products manufacturing,and larger than the tertiary industries such as wholesale and retail trade,postal services,information transmission,computer services and software,and finance,ranking 11th.(2)The total carbon emission generated by tourism industry accounts for about 3%of the whole industry,and the total carbon dioxide emission from tourism industry rises from 108,007.66 million tons in 1997 to 31,780.331 million tons in 2020,and the total carbon emission is the largest in 2017,reaching 57,836.032 million tons.Indirect carbon emissions from tourism account for about 73%of the total CO2 emissions from tourism in China,rising from 78,095,940 tons in 1997 to 252,148,340 tons in 2020.The direct carbon emission from tourism industry rises from 29,911,172,000 tons in 1997 to 65,384,980,000 tons in 2020.(3)The overall trend of carbon sink in China’s tourism country space is increasing,from 233,339,100 tons in 2000 to 235,160,100 tons in 2020,an increase of 1,821,100 tons,with a growth rate of 0.78%.Woodland carbon sink is the most important carbon sink pathway in China,and forestry resources are an important source of carbon sink,accounting for 98.91%of China’s total carbon sink.(4)The baseline scenario is not consistent with the international community’s and China’s goals for carbon emission reduction.The policy intervention scenario model is consistent with China’s development goals,and carbon emission reduction without affecting economic development is a sustainable development approach.The low carbon scenario has the lowest total carbon emissions and a significant trend of reducing carbon intensity per capita.In the context of carbon sink impacts,the per capita carbon emission intensity of tourism peaks in 2030 and 2025 for the policy intervention scenario and the low carbon scenario,respectively.Finally,in order to promote the construction of ecological civilization,achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals in tourism industry,and realize the highquality development of tourism industry,based on the research results,we propose(1)to optimize the internal structure of tourism and improve the efficiency of energy utilization;(2)to establish green development indicators and implement reasonable constraint management;(3)to strengthen the publicity of environmental protection concept and advocate low-carbon consumption behavior,which are related to the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions in tourism industry. |
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