| Since the reform and opening up,China’s new urbanization has entered a stage of rapid development,and since the new era,China’s new urbanization has been in a transitional stage from rapid development to gradual improvement of quality.In the transition period of high-quality development towards new urbanization,the "dual carbon" goal was first proposed by China at the United Nations General Assembly in September 2020,and China further announced measures to enhance national independent contributions at the same year’s climate summit.At the same time,at the United Nations Biodiversity Summit,the Third Paris Peace Forum,and the 12 th BRICS Leaders’ Meeting At several international conferences,such as the Riyadh Summit and the Century Economic Forum,China has consistently made pledges.After putting forward goals,measures and making corresponding pledges,carbon peaking and carbon neutrality have been listed as one of the eight key tasks of this year by the 2020 Central Economic Work Conference.In this context,a large number of scholars have begun to think and explore specific paths for China to achieve emission reduction work at different scales from different fields and perspectives.As a major province in China’s new urbanization and carbon emissions,achieving the "dual carbon" goals in Shandong Province not only benefits the improvement of its own environmental quality,but also serves as a reference for other provinces to achieve the "dual carbon" goals.Based on this,this article stands in the context of new urbanization and the "dual carbon" goal,taking all prefecture level cities in Shandong Province as the research area.Firstly,using night light data to extract the total value of night light brightness in various cities in Shandong Province from 2010 to 2020,combined with carbon emission data from various cities,a carbon emission inversion model is constructed.Subsequently,statistical yearbook data and empirical threshold method were used to extract the urban built-up area of all cities in Shandong Province.Combined with night light data,the total value of urban night light brightness of all cities in Shandong Province was obtained.Through a carbon emission inversion model,the urban carbon emissions of various cities in Shandong Province were inverted and analyzed for accuracy;Secondly,by constructing a comprehensive indicator system for new urbanization and urban carbon emissions,we aim to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of new urbanization and urban carbon emissions in various cities in Shandong Province;Once again,explore the coupling relationship and impact mechanism between new urbanization and urban carbon emissions;Finally,select an independent variable dataset to predict the urban carbon emissions of various cities in Shandong Province from 2021 to 2035,and based on this,analyze the urban carbon peak pattern of various cities in Shandong Province.At the same time,in the context of the rapid development of new urbanization,select variables to analyze the driving mechanism that affects the carbon peak pattern.Based on the above analysis,the conclusion is as follows:Firstly,by constructing a carbon emission inversion model,it can be concluded that the polynomial carbon emission inversion model has the best fitting effect,with a fitting degree of0.768.The error between the calculated urban carbon emissions and the actual values is between[-0.798,-0.436].According to calculations,the carbon emissions of cities in various regions of Shandong Province have increased from 2010 to 2020,with the fastest increase occurring in the central region of Shandong.Secondly,by calculating the level of new urbanization and urban carbon emissions in Shandong Province,it can be concluded that from 2010 to 2020,the level of new urbanization continued to increase,while the level of urban carbon emissions showed a "U" shaped change.Both showed a gradual downward trend from east to west and from north to south.The level of population urbanization and urban carbon emissions have become the dominant criteria affecting the level of new urbanization and urban carbon emissions,respectively.Thirdly,through the analysis of the coupling relationship between new urbanization and urban carbon emissions in Shandong Province and its influencing factors,it can be concluded that the coupling coordination degree of most cities in Shandong Province increased from 2010 to 2020,with the largest increase concentrated in the central region of Shandong.During the research period,only the coordinated development type of the Jinan Qingdao dual core cities in2020 entered the transitional stage,while the coordinated development type of the remaining cities remained in the antagonistic stage throughout the research period.At the same time,the coordinated development type was in the highly antagonistic stage of advanced new urbanization development,and the cities were concentrated in the southern and northwestern regions of Shandong;From 2010 to 2020,only the proportion of urban population,human capital level,and industrialization rate were significantly correlated with the degree of coupling coordination.The impact of industrialization rate on coupling coordination degree changed from negative to positive in 2015,and this impact has always been the greatest.The impact of urban population proportion on coupling coordination degree first changes from negative to positive and then from positive to negative,and its impact degree first increases and then decreases.The level of human capital has a positive impact on the sustained growth of coupling coordination;The impact of industrialization rate on coupling coordination has changed from a negative impact that gradually decreased from northwest to southeast in 2010 to a positive impact that gradually decreased from east to west in 2020.The proportion of urban population has always had a negative impact on the coupling coordination degree,which gradually decreases from east to west.The positive impact of human capital level on coupling coordination gradually decreased from south to north in 2010,and from west to east in 2020.Fourthly,by analyzing the carbon peak patterns and influencing factors in various cities in Shandong Province,it can be concluded that the carbon emissions of cities in Shandong Province will peak in 2025,Yantai and Dezhou cities will peak in 2021,Weihai and Rizhao cities will peak in 2022,Qingdao and Binzhou cities will peak in 2025,and Linyi city will peak in 2027,Tai’an City will achieve its urban carbon peak in 2028.The level of economic development,degree of openness to the outside world,and government intervention from 2010 to 2020 all had a negative impact on the carbon peak pattern of various cities in Shandong Province.The factor that had the greatest impact on urban carbon emissions changed from the level of economic development to the degree of openness to the outside world in 2020.The sum of the effects of economic development level,degree of openness to the outside world,and government intervention on the carbon peak pattern in cities reaches its maximum in Liaocheng,Heze,Dezhou,Jinan,Tai’an,Jining,and Zaozhuang.Fifthly,based on the above research results,propose countermeasures and suggestions for achieving the "dual carbon" goal in Shandong Province: maintain steady development of urbanization level;steadily increasing the proportion of urban population;promote the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure,continue to reduce the proportion of secondary industry,and appropriately increase the proportion of tertiary industry;strengthen government intervention in urban ecological environment construction;fully leverage the leading role of the Jiaodong Peninsula;gradually reduce regional differences. |
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