Study On Energy Demand And Carbon Emissions In Jilin Province Based On The LEAP Model

The Chinese government has declared its intention to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.In China,90% of carbon emissions come from the energy sector.Forecasting energy demand and carbon emissions in the energy sector can provide a reference for government development planning and emissions reduction policies.Currently,Jilin Province is in a period of economic development transformation and a plateau of energy demand and carbon emissions.Therefore,it is of great significance to predict the future energy demand,carbon emissions,and peak carbon times scientifically and accurately in Jilin Province and to explore the impact of various factors on carbon emissions.This study focuses on energy demand and carbon emissions in the energy sector of Jilin Province,using 2019 as the base year.It establishes a LEAP(Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning System)model based on the current energy consumption and carbon emissions in Jilin Province.It forecasts energy demand and carbon emissions in Jilin Province under different economic growth scenarios,different industrial structure scenarios,energy conservation and emissions reduction scenarios,and comprehensive scenarios.It determines the peak carbon time and discusses the impact of GDP growth,industrial structure,and energy conservation and emission reduction policies on energy demand and carbon emissions.Research results show that GDP growth determines the overall trend of energy consumption and carbon emissions,and optimizing the industrial structure can effectively reduce energy intensity and carbon emission intensity.Total energy consumption ranges between 70-110 million tce.Under the baseline scenario,Jilin Province does not show a peak carbon trend.Under the energy conservation and emissions reduction scenario,Jilin Province will achieve peak carbon in 2025,with a total energy consumption of 77.9 million tce and carbon emissions of 164.7 million tons.Under the maximum carbon emissions policy scenario,Jilin Province will achieve peak carbon in 2029.To provide further reference for the carbon emissions reduction path in Jilin Province,this study calculates the potential for carbon reduction by industry and energy type.It establishes four sub-scenarios through a single-factor analysis method,conducting a quantitative analysis of the impact of factors such as energy intensity,the proportion of fossil fuels,and the electricity supply system on carbon emissions.Research results show that,while ensuring social and economic development,Jilin Province’s emissions reduction potential mainly comes from the power sector,highenergy-consuming industrial sectors,and the transportation sector.The reduction in energy intensity and the widespread use of clean energy in energy consumption and power supply and heating,leading to a decrease in coal consumption,are the main pathways to achieving carbon emissions reduction.Therefore,Jilin Province can achieve carbon emissions reduction under economic development by further optimizing the power supply system,optimizing the energy consumption system,developing emerging energy industries,promoting the reduction and substitution of coal,and optimizing the industrial structure,achieving coordinated development of the environment and economy.