Study On Peak Prediction Of Carbon Emission And Control Strategies In Jilin Province

Since global warming is a serious threat to human sustainable development,China, as well as the international community, has taken measures to cope with thechange of global climate and slow down the greenhouse effect. In March2011,Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People’s Republic of Chinamade it clear that in2015, energy consumption per unit of industrial added value andcarbon dioxide emission should be lower by the end of the11th Five-Year plan by18%, which proposed new requirements about the degrees of energy conservationand emission reduction and the levels of reducing carbon emission both for thenational government and local governments. In March2011, in the released12thFive-Year Plan, China announced that, by the end of2015, per unit of carbonemissions intensity will be reduced by17%in China and further clarified thespecific responsibilities and tasks of regional carbon emission reduction.As one of the areas whose modern industry started earlier in China, JilinProvince, going through the economic construction after the founding of the PRC,especially the large-scale economy construction during the1st Five-Year and2ndFive-Year period, has been formed as an industrial base which takes petroleum,chemical, building materials and other heavy industries as the mainstay, which hasmade a significant contribution to the economic development of New China. Butwith the development of global economy, Jilin Province’s disadvantages has beenfully displayed, such as the irrational industrial structure, the aging of technologyand equipments, and huge energy consumption, etc., which deviates from the policyfor reducing the greenhouse gas emission of China. In recent years, as Jilin provinceis in a period of rapid economic and social development, energy consumption andcarbon emission will keep increasing. Therefore, in the new period, the importantmission for the economic and social development of Jilin Province is to carry outcarbon emission reduction and take the low-carbon development path, as well as to ensure the developing speed of economic society. The prediction of carbon emissionpeak and the research on greenhouse gas emission policy in Jilin Province willprovide a technical support and theoretical reference for the development oflow-carbon economy in Jilin Province.On the basis of climate change and low-carbon economy, energy alternativetheory and sustainable development theory, this paper studies the economic andsocial development and carbon emission status of Jilin Province. By employingLMDI model to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emission in Jilin Province,it distinguishes the carbon increase factors and reduction factors. Through combiningeconomic and social development with relevant planning and policy, the paper usesextended STIRPAT model to predict the peak of carbon emission in eight scenariosset by scenario analysis method, such as baseline scenario, energy conservationscenario, low-carbon scenario and so on. After further analyzing the impacts oncarbon emission peak time and peak value done by the change of single factors ofcarbon increase factors and reduction factors, the research proposes thecountermeasures for carbon emission control. As a multiple variables nonlinearmodel, extended STIRPAT model used for predicting carbon emission peak can fullyreflect the impact of the independent variable such as the population, economicdevelopment, technology, industrial structure and energy structure on carbonemission and comprehensive study of various factors in the peak forecast.The study indicates that, affected by the development of economy, technology,population and so on, carbon emission peak and peak time of various scenarios aredifferent. Low-carbon scenario Ⅰ and energy conservation scenario Ⅰ are moresuitable for the future development of Jilin province. Among them, the low-carbonscenario Ⅰ is the best scenario for carbon reduction, in which not only the peak timeis earlier (the year of2033), but also the peak value is smaller. Although the peakvalue and the total emissions from2010to2050are greater than that inenvironmental protection scenario, the proportions is less than10%. Hence,compared with the low-carbon scenario Ⅱ and energy conservation scenario Ⅱ ofthe high-speed economy development and environmental protection scenario which is at the cost of sacrificing economic development, the low-carbon scenario Ⅰ andenergy conservation scenario Ⅰare superior, among which, the low-carbon scenarioⅠ is the best scenario for carbon reduction. By altering the change rate of singlevariables to study the effects brought about by single factors on the peak value indifferent scenarios, this analysis reveals that the proportions taken by non-fossilenergy and urbanization rate only have affects on peak time, not on peak value. Inother words, there are6factors have impacts on the peak value to varying degrees.Among them, the factor of per capita GDP exerts more significant influence on peakvalue in8scenarios than any other factors. Except the proportion of non-fossilenergy and urbanization rate, the other4factors partly impact the peak time:population and per capita GDP play the role of postponing the peak time and thesecondary industry proportion and carbon emission intensity can advance the peaktime, especially the secondary industry proportion. Thus, in the meantime ofdetermining the appropriate speed of economic development to meet the materialand cultural demands, the rapid development and application of low-carbontechnologies, industrial restructuring and energy consumption structure adjustmentare the major fields of controlling greenhouse gas emission in Jilin Province.