| As global climate change continues to intensify,carbon peaking has become an important goal for countries to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.From the perspective of economic development,carbon credits are a priority for the economy.How to achieve industrial upgrading and energy restructuring and promote economic resilience in the face of the impact of peak targets is a key issue in the current quality development of regions and cities.The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is one of China’s largest carbon-emitting regions and the most important strategic space in China.The exploration of a two-dimensional model for high-quality regional development under the consideration of carbon reduction and economic resilience enhancement is of great practical significance for other regional units to achieve high-quality economic development under the carbon peak target.Based on this,this paper starts from the theory of resilience science and complex systems theory,and on the basis of the analysis of the connotation and components of regional economic resilience,introduces the PSIR model research theory,nesting this model with resilience theory,and treats the evolution of urban economic resilience as a dynamic process in which the urban economic system experiences the "pressure" exerted by the environment before the disturbance → the "state" of resistance during the disturbance → the "impact" produced during the disturbance → the "response" taken after the disturbance,so as to portray and analyse the evolution mechanism of urban economic resilience.On this basis,the PSIR-SENCE model framework was developed and the initial selection of metrics was carried out using the systematic review method.A dynamics model of the urban economic resilience system under peak carbon targets was constructed using Vensim software,and the development paths of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration in the context of peak carbon were set up in four scenarios: status quo continuity,economic orientation,ecological orientation and integrated and coordinated development.The SD model parameters for each scenario are set through scenario analysis.Finally,through the simulation of the economic resilience of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cities from 2001 to 2030 under different scenarios,the optimal path to improve the economic resilience of cities under the carbon peak target is identified and the differentiated characteristics of resilience development under different scenarios are analysed,and corresponding countermeasures are suggested based on the empirical findings.This paper shows that:(1)The evolutionary characteristics of the economic resilience of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cities: "P→S→I→R",i.e.the one-way chain of "pressure→state→impact→response",present the whole process of resilience evolution of urban economic system resistance,adaptation and recovery under the impact of carbon emission reduction.Secondly,the closed-loop path of "S→I→R→S",i.e."state→impact→response→state",describes the responsiveness of the urban economic system to self-innovation,transformation and upgrading,including the optimisation and adjustment of the industrial structure,the improvement of the economic and social development environment,and the support for maintaining a stable economic upswing.However,the evolution of economic resilience in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cities constructed by the SEM model does not form a strict closed loop,and the negative effect of "response→pressure" does not pass the significance test,resulting in a broken feedback chain and the inability to mitigate the shock pressure of carbon emission reduction through response measures.(2)Comparing the increase in economic resilience of most cities in the four simulation scenarios,it can be seen that the greatest increase in resilience is in the integrated and coordinated development scenario,followed by the economically or ecologically oriented development scenario,and finally the status quo continuum development scenario.The integrated and coordinated development scenario is more balanced between the pressure and response resilience dimensions.On the one hand,the stress resilience value is increased by alleviating the pressure of carbon emission reduction;on the other hand,positive and effective feedback measures are taken to increase the response resilience.Secondly,based on the role of the evolutionary path of urban economic resilience verified by the SEM model in the previous section,the positive action path of R→S,led by the resource elements of the response resilience dimension,assists in improving the state resilience;then it also promotes the improvement of the impact resilience through the positive action of S→I,finally realising the resilience improvement of the four dimensions.(3)Suggestions for countermeasures to improve the economic resilience of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cities under the peak carbon target: Combining the results of this paper’s empirical research on the evolutionary characteristics of urban economic resilience under the peak carbon target and simulation,suggestions for countermeasures are put forward from the following four aspects.We will build a regional collaborative development model for "pressure" impact mitigation,strengthen regional development,cross-sector and field cooperation,science and technology innovation and information technology construction;build an urban economic system structure for "state" adaptation and upgrading,and promote urban industrial upgrading with diversified scale effects;improve an urban disaster warning system for "impact" dynamic monitoring,and strengthen urban disaster warning and emergency management capabilities;deepen a "response" policy-driven economic resilience enhancement strategy,and promote the smooth evolution of multidimensional resilience. |
