| The urban agglomeration is the main form of promoting the development of new urbanization,meanwhile green development is one of the important development concepts that China adheres to.Both issues are related to the national economy and the people's livelihood.The combination of urban agglomeration and green development are the green development of urban agglomerations,which constitutes an important issue that is relatively independent and worthy of attention.The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration covers 2%of the Chinese total land area,with a total population of 8%of the country's total population.The regional GDP accounts for 10%of the country's total.It is the third largest country in China after the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration and the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration to support economic growth and lead structural transformation.This urban agglomeration has an advantageous geographical position,convenient transportation,abundant resources and developed technology.It plays an important role in stimulating the economic vitality of the surrounding areas and expanding the degree of opening up.However,with the acceleration of urbanization and the expansion of local interests,the contradictions within the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration have become increasingly prominent.Unreasonable energy and industrial structures,imperfect coordination mechanisms,and constant resources and environment The looting and destruction have made the ecological environment very serious,affecting the healthy and sustainable development of the region.At the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee,General Secretary Xi Jinping proposes five development concepts of innovation,coordination,greenness,openness and sharing,and regards green development as an important concept of China's economic and social development during the 13th Five-Year Plan and even longer.Green development advocates coordinated and hannonious development of people,society and nature,and strives to find a win-win path for environment and development.Promoting the green development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration is the need to build an ecological civilization,the need to break through the bottleneck of the resource environment,and the need to build a world-class urban agglomeration for the future.This paper focuses on the green development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration.The overall research ideas are that:based on the relevant research theories,this paper enlightens the definition of the green development of the urban agglomeration,and constructs the evaluation index system for the green development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration.Quantitative model is used to evaluate the green development level of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration,further analyze the coordination of green development,identify the obstacle factors affecting the green development level of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration.By analyzing the system dynamic mechanism and establishing a system dynamics model,simulation analysises of different paths are given,then it could be obtained that the optimal path for improving the green development level of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration,and finally propose policy recommendations to promote the green development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration.The contents and conclusions are summarized as follows:(1)Introducing the background and research significance of the paper,analyzing research status from 4 aspects,the origin and connotation of green development thought,influence factors and evaluation of green development,the model and path of green development and the green development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration.We could know that the existing literature has a developing space in the aspects of green development influencing factors and evaluation methods,urban agglomeration green development system research and green development path simulation research,then the necessity of this paper is clarified,research methods and technology roadmap of this paper are determined.(2)The theoretical system of green development for urban agglomeration is established from three levels:guiding theory,structural theory and related theory,the relationship between each theory and this paper is analysed.Afterwards,this paper defines the connotation of green development of urban agglomeration,and holds that to analyze green development from the perspective of urban agglomeration is not to look at a city alone,but to connect multiple cities across provinces,that is,the process of integration and coordination.The WSR methodology is introduced,and the core content of this research is combed and organically unified by using system thinking and methods.(3)Based on the connotation and characteristics of the green development of urban agglomerations,related literature and the actual situation of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration,according to the scientific,clear,systematic,representative and practical principles of the selection of indicators,the green development index system for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration is preliminarily formulated,with "not be less than 3 of the 5 principles to achieve 'excellence' as the screening principle",the index is screened by using the fuzzy language and OWA assembly method,and the index system is optimized by using coefficient of variation and multiple collinearity test,the former is used to analyze index discrimination,and the latter is used to avoid repeated information.Finally,the green development evaluation index system of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration,which consists of 5 criteria layers and 28 measurable indicators,is obtained.(4)The entropy weight and cloud model evaluation method is established to measure the green development level of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration.Entropy method is used to determine the weight of the index,Normal cloud model is used to evaluate the green development level.The green development level is divided into five grades:low,relatively low,general,relatively high and high,and the grade is processed by cloud computing.The average cloud membership degree of the index under each grade is obtained by using MATLAB program.The final evaluation result shows that from 2005 to 2015,the level of green development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration presents a "relatively low-general-relatively high" development trend,and there is still a certain gap from the high level.Coupling coordination degree model is used to quantitatively analyze the coordination among agglomeration degree,growth quality,resource utilization,environmental management and ecological protection of urban agglomeration.The results show that that the development trend of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration's green development level is gradually increasing as well as coupling degree and coordination degree among the five dimensions.Based on the traditional obstacle degree model without considering the dynamic characteristics of time series and the possible problems in calculating the obstacle degree of criterion layer by using simple summation formula,an improved obstacle degree model is established.The concept of time weight vector is introduced.The time weight vector of time series is calculated by using iterative method in MATLAB software,and then the index factor obstacle degree and the criterion layer factor obstacle degree are obtained by calculation.The results show that the index factor had a large change with time,and the resource utilization and environmental governance in the criterion layer are ranked in the first two of the obstacles,indicating that the green development ability of these two aspects is the weakest,which is the bottleneck of the green development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration.(5)According to the theoretical methods of system dynamics,modeling principles and steps,the feasibility of establishing a green development system model of urban agglomeration is analyzed.On this basis,the constituent elements of the dynamic mechanism of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration green development system are composed of three elements:core elements,main elements and environmental elements.The core elements are the source power of green development of urban agglomeration.The main elements are pulling power and environmental elements are supporting power.According to the analysis of the dynamic mechanism,and referring to the main obstacle factors identified in the previous paper,the system boundary is determined,and the feedback relationship among the variables in the green development system of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration is explored.Using the VENSIM software,the causal relationship diagram and flow graph of the system are drawn,and the dynamic model of the green development system of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration is established.After the model test is passed,four path schemes are designed:economic benefit orientation,social benefit orientation,environmental benefit orientation and coordination orientation.By adjusting the control parameters,the effects of different parameter combinations under different path schemes on the output parameters are simulated.The simulation analysis shows that the optimal path to improve the green development level of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration is coordination orientation path.(6)Based on the evaluation results of the green development level of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration,the analysis of coordination and obstacles,and the simulation study of the green development system of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration,and the discussion of the dynamic mechanism of the system,focusing on the situaton of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration,this paper puts forward some suggestions from the perspective of source power,pulling power,supporting power and coordinated development to promote the green development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration..The research contributions of this paper have the following points:(1)The connotation of green development of urban agglomeration was defined,and the WSR three-dimensional analysis model of green development was constructed.The fuzzy language and OWA method,coefficient of variation method and multi-collinearity test were used to establish the index system for evaluating the green development level of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration.(2)By using the cloud model comprehensive evaluation method,the green development level of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration was measured comprehensively.The coordination degree model was used to analyze the coordination of green development.An improved obstacle model was established to identify the main obstacles to the green development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration.(3)Based on the analysis of the dynamic mechanism of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration's green development system,the dynamic model of the green development system of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration was established,the optimal path to improve the green development level of Beijing-Tianjin Urban Agglomeration was obtained through system simulation analysis. |
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