| It is the latest requirement for environmental work in the report of the 20 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China to "actively and steadily promote carbon peak carbon neutrality".Since the Industrial Revolution,climate change has posed a serious threat to the living environment of humanity,and has also had a negative impact on the economic development of human society,hindering the process of social development.In order to ensure the high-quality and sustainable development of China’s social economy,we must firmly promote the "double carbon" work as an important starting point,and accelerate the construction of a green and low carbon cycle development economic system.Therefore,this article aims to deeply explore the regional differences,dynamic evolution,and influencing factors of carbon emissions in China,explore the potential for carbon reduction,reasonably plan the direction of industrial development,accelerate the pace of ecological civilization construction,and ensure the smooth completion of the "dual carbon" goal.It is of great significance.This article first uses the IPCC carbon emission coefficient method to calculate the carbon emissions of seven major regions in China from 2003 to 2020,and analyzes the current status of regional carbon emissions in China.The results show that regional carbon emissions in China exhibit phased characteristics.The Gini coefficient and its decomposition method were used to study the regional differences in carbon emissions in China.The results showed that there were significant differences between and within the seven major regions of China,and the regional differences in carbon emissions mainly came from inter group differences.Then,the nonparametric kernel density estimation method is used to describe the dynamic evolution of carbon emissions in seven regions.The extended STIRPAT model and ridge regression analysis were used to analyze the factors affecting China’s carbon emissions.It was found that population density,per capita GDP,energy structure,and urbanization rate all have a significant positive impact on carbon emissions.Next,the ARIMA prediction model is used to explore the peak arrival of China’s carbon emissions and predict future carbon emissions in China.The results indicate that under current economic policies,China’s carbon emissions will peak around 2026,and the carbon peak target will be achieved ahead of schedule.Finally,this article proposes feasible and targeted strategies that can better promote carbon reduction and develop a low-carbon economy in China.From a regional perspective,the Chinese government should formulate carbon reduction policies tailored to local conditions,and formulate targeted carbon reduction policies based on factors such as industrial characteristics and geographical location of each region;From a national perspective,China needs to optimize its population structure and promote new urbanization reforms;Adhere to green and low-carbon development,and transform the mode of economic development;Strengthen technological innovation and vigorously develop low-carbon and clean energy. |
