The Research On Regional Variations In China’s Carbon Emissions And Its Calculations Of Carbon Emission Permits Based On 3E Model

Today the international community attaches great importance to the climate warming. Carbon emissions, as the main considered subject, its emissions directly determine the increasing extent of the average global temperature rises. Then the reasonable distribution of the carbon emission rights is not only a pure problem about natural science, but also problems related to the social and economic development, which will inevitably involve the interest games between different countries and industries. So now there is no unified plan in the world besides intensity distribution scheme.In order to ensure the global warming does not exceed 2 ℃ "threshold" by the year of 2050, many developed and underdeveloped countries urge China to reduce carbon emissions. In this case, China must strive for greater carbon emissions space at the time of ensuring its economic development. Then the reasonable calculation of its carbon emissions is particularly important, and so is the fair allocation of carbon emission rights.The author thinks that when a large amount of CO2 emissions are produced in China during it’s the financial development, they are also greatly absorbed by the vast forests and grassland because of their carbon sequestration abilities. In this view, in order to discuss China’s carbon emissions objectively, the author tried to calculate them from the perspective of land use, which includes both the carbon emissions from the construction land and the carbon sink from the woodland and grassland. On the other hand, it is a problem for China to allocate its total carbon emissions reasonably among each provinces and cities based on fair. To solve it, the author attempted to establish a 3E model from its ecology, equity and efficiency based on the previous studies. Then the spatial and temporal variations of China’s carbon emissions were analyzed and the future carbon emission space from 2013 to 2050 in each Chinese province was calculated with this model. Here are the conclusions:(1) The spatial distributions of China’s carbon emissions based on 3E model are different from the distribution of pure carbon emissions, which presents the circular distribution centered as Bohai economic circle areas. And half of the provinces in China are in good conditions from the aspects of their ecology, equity and economic efficiency.(2) The carbon emission space calculated with 3E model are different from the commonly used per capita emissions, lying in that they consider not only the per capita but also regional ecological, economic and equity, which means more ideal.(3) As the carbon emissions in Chinese coastal zone are great with its large population density and rapid economic growth, the author analyzed them detailed and reached the conclusions that the reduction of carbon intensity is also greater in coastal zone areas in recent years, and its carbon emission space are middle and it is easy to achieve its carbon intensity decrease aim.(4) To achieve the emission reduction targets in 2030, China needs to follow the principle of adjusting measures to local conditions, and determine regional ways to increase its carbon sink and reduce its carbon emissions.This study will provide ideas for the regional differences of carbon emissions and also make references both to the allocation of carbon emission rights in the future and to the determining of the carbon polices. And it may be a way for China to strive for the international carbon emissions rights.