Human Factors Analysis Of Railway Traffic Accidents Based On CREAM

In recent years,railway transportation has become one of the preferred modes of transportation for long-distance travel and goods transportation due to its good safety,affordable ticket prices,convenience and comfort,and all-weather transportation.In order to build a modern railway transportation service system and better meet the needs of the people for travel,the safety of railway transportation has been elevated to the top priority of railway work.The losses caused by railway traffic accidents are often not only casualties and property losses,but may also have a chain reaction on the entire railway transportation system,bringing huge impacts to society and economy.According to relevant literature,nearly 80% of railway traffic accidents are caused by human error.Therefore,studying human error and its influencing factors,and proposing corresponding management strategies,are beneficial for reducing the probability of human error and improving the safety level of railway transportation,which has important research significance.Based on the theory of human factors engineering,this article analyzes the theoretical foundations of railway traffic accidents and human error models,and constructs a human error model in railway traffic accidents.In order to achieve traceability analysis and quantitative prediction of human error events,multiple common HRA methods were compared,and 10 standards were used to compare various methods.The CREAM method was determined to be used in this study,Based on this,a cause classification table and a consequence cause traceability table suitable for use in the field of railway traffic accidents have been formed.The Delphi method was used to sort out the questionnaire of the expert group,and the effect impact index was obtained.The expansion method of quantitative prediction was used to calculate the more accurate basic value of error probability.Finally,this article takes a Railway particularly serious traffic railway accident as an example to investigate and collect relevant data of the accident.Using the established railway traffic accident human factor event tracing model and quantitative prediction expansion method,empirical research is conducted to identify the root causes and occurrence probabilities of four human error events,and work guidance suggestions are proposed.The model analysis and calculation results constructed in this study are consistent with the investigation results of this Railway particularly serious traffic railway accident,confirming that the CREAM retrospective analysis method can be applied to human factor analysis in the field of railway traffic accidents.This article provides a certain degree of contribution to the study of human factor analysis in the field of railway traffic safety,enriching the theory of human factor analysis in railway traffic safety.The constructed CREAM traceability analysis model provides new ideas for research in this field,helping railway traffic safety management personnel to deeply explore the underlying causes of accidents,evaluate the reliability of personnel behavior,and improve the safety of railway systems,Optimize system design and operational management.