| As a pillar industry of China’s national economy,the construction industry plays a vital role in the country’s economic development.A series of construction projects to meet people’s living needs and infrastructure projects related to the national economy and people’s livelihood cannot be separated from the production work of the construction industry.Housing municipal engineering is an indispensable material foundation for the survival and development of a city,a basic condition for improving people’s living standards and opening to the outside world,and plays an irreplaceable role in the construction industry.The occurrence of housing municipal engineering accidents has brought serious loss of life and property to practitioners and society,which has seriously hindered the process of building a harmonious and friendly society.Based on the data of housing municipal engineering accidents in 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions except Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan from2010 to 2021,this study uses statistical analysis to explore them,summarizes the characteristics of housing municipal engineering accidents in China and puts forward reasonable preventive measures and suggestions.The grey system theory GM(1,1)prediction model is used to predict the number,types and fatalities of housing municipal engineering accidents in China in the future,and to evaluate the safety production of housing municipal engineering in China in the future.The study found that:(1)From 2010 to 2021,there were 7,424 housing municipal engineering accidents in China,resulting in 8,884 deaths,with an average of 2.03 deaths per day.Among them,the number of falling accidents is the largest,accounting for 52.48% of all accidents.The number of accidents occurred at the mouth of the cave and near the edge,accounting for 20.81% of the total number of accidents,followed by scaffolding and tower cranes,accounting for 12.09% and 11.43% respectively.(2)From 2010 to 2021,33.70% of housing municipal engineering accidents occurred in East China.As far as specific areas are concerned,among the 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions except Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan,Jiangsu Province has the largest number of housing municipal engineering accidents and deaths,with a total of 733 cases and 826 deaths.(3)From 2010 to 2021,there were 297 major and above accidents in housing municipal engineering in China,resulting in 1198 deaths.In 2021,there were 16 major and above accidents and 68 people died in the national housing municipal projects,and major and above accidents occurred in 12 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions.More than half of the municipal engineering accidents of large and above houses involve collapse,and the proportion of deaths of this type is as high as 64.71%.In August,there were 32 major and above accidents in housing municipal works,resulting in 122 deaths.(4)With the help of the grey system theory GM(1,1)forecasting model,the relevant data of housing municipal engineering accidents in China in 2023 are predicted.The forecasting results show that there will be 836 housing municipal engineering accidents in China in 2023,19 large and above accidents,with a total death toll of 910 people.Falling from a height is still the main accident type,accounting for 57.66% of the total accidents.Based on the data analysis of the number of housing municipal engineering accidents,the number of fatalities,the number of construction enterprises,employees and the average number of fatalities,the overall situation of housing municipal engineering safety production in China is stable and continues to improve,but the overall situation is still grim,and there is a risk of rebound.It is necessary to improve safety management measures according to the situation. |