Decomposition And Emission Reduction Strategy Design Of Carbon Emission Drivers In Jiangxi Province

Global warming is a huge challenge to mankind.Whether we can solve this problem well concerns the future and fate of mankind.Excessive carbon dioxide emission is one of the biggest factors causing climate warming.Excessive carbon dioxide comes from energy consumption required by social production and life,and the ultimate purpose of energy consumption is to achieve social development.However,the current social development mode is bound to cause environmental pollution,especially for Jiangxi Province,which takes primary energy as the main energy source.There is no delay in achieving a low-carbon transition.As the main body of national economic and social development,cities are a key link to achieve low-carbon transition.The prefecture-level cities in Jiangxi Province can be divided into two categories: one is resource-based city,represented by Ganzhou,the "World Wusu",and the other is non-resource-based city,represented by Nanchang,the "hero city".The two types of cities have different economic development priorities,so the path to low-carbon transformation should be different.Therefore,the decomposition of carbon emission driving factors of the two types of cities in Jiangxi Province and the setting of different carbon emission reduction schemes and simulation based on the decomposition results are of great significance for the control of carbon emissions of resource-based cities and non-resource-based cities in Jiangxi Province and even the resource-based cities and non-resource-based cities in China to realize low-carbon economic transformation and high-quality development.Firstly,carbon dioxide emissions of prefecture-level cities in Jiangxi Province were calculated,and economic development,energy consumption and carbon emissions of prefecture-level cities in Jiangxi Province were analyzed.Secondly,the log-mean Dix index model(LMDI)was used to discuss the contribution rate of the driving factors of the two types of cities to the carbon dioxide emissions,which laid the foundation for the setting of subsequent emission reduction paths.Then,the system dynamics model including energy,economy and carbon emissions is constructed,and the validity of this model is tested.Finally,on the premise that the model is effective,according to the decomposition results of carbon dioxide emission driving factors of the two types of cities,the two factors with the greatest influence are selected for carbon emission reduction path design,and the simulation results of different paths of the two types of cities are analyzed to determine whether the simulation results of different paths of the two types of cities can meet the carbon dioxide emission intensity target of the government’s "14th Five-Year Plan",and the optimal carbon emission reduction path is selected for the two types of cities.The scientific emission reduction plan is put forward for resource-based cities and non-resource-based cities in Jiangxi Province.The research results show that,for resource-based cities in Jiangxi Province,energy intensity and energy consumption structure,as the two most influential factors,are included in the carbon emission reduction program.Considering that energy intensity is not easy to control and adjust,scientific and technological input is used instead.Among the three carbon emission reduction schemes,the scenario with an average annual increase of 7% in science and technology investment,2% in raw coal,and 2% in natural gas has the best simulation results and can basically achieve the target,while the other two scenarios have slightly worse simulation results.For non-resource-based cities in Jiangxi Province,economic development and energy consumption structure,as the two most influential factors,are included in the carbon emission reduction plan.The fixed asset investment of the secondary industry is selected to represent the economic development status.The simulation results show that the fixed asset investment of the secondary industry increases by 7% annually,and the proportion of raw coal decreases by 2% annually.The simulation results of the scenario with the average annual increase of 2% of natural gas share are the best,which can achieve the target roughly,while the simulation results of the other two scenarios are slightly worse.Finally,according to the simulation results of two kinds of cities,the policy suggestions are put forward.