The Analysis Of Driving Factors Of Chinese Industrial Carbon Emission And Simulation Of Carbon-reducing Mechanism

As the world's second largest economy and the largest developing country in the world,Chinese economy has been developed rapidly in recent years,but the resulting energy use problem and environment pollution problem have also attracted great attention.Now Chinese economy development is still extremely relying on industrial development.According to the data of China statistical yearbook 2016,industry accounted for 34.3% of Chinese GDP,which is much higher than that of developed countries.Greenhouse gas emissions mainly come from the burning of fossil fuels.According to the statistical yearbook data,Chinese total industrial energy consumption accounted for 68% of the total national energy consumption in 2015,indicating that industry was the main source of Chinese greenhouse gas emissions.On May 8,2015,the state council officially issued "made in China 2025",which proposed that the carbon dioxide emission per unit of industrial added value of Chinese industry should be reduced by 40% compared with that of 2015.Chinese industrial emissions reduction tasks have a long way to go.In order to achieve the goal of industrial emission reduction,it's necessary to make research to study the cause and mechanism of Chinese industrial carbon dioxide emission fundamentally.Therefore,this paper focus on the “cause” on one hand and use the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)factor decomposition model to factorize the factors which affect carbon dioxide emissions,exploring the extent of contribution of different factors to carbon emissions growth,such as population,industrial development,industry structure,energy intensity,energy structure and carbon emission coefficient.On the other hand,focusing on the “countermeasures”,this paper uses the theoretical methods of system dynamics to construct a dynamic model of Chinese industrial carbon trading policy,and establishes dynamic feedback relationships among environmental subsystems,economic subsystems,energy subsystems and different carbon trading policies in order to explore the effects of different carbon trading mechanism design on Chinese industrial carbon dioxide emission reduction and economic development.This paper provides a reliable scientific basis for the government to take measures to control Chinese industrial carbon dioxide emissions through the analysis of “cause”,and guides the design and construction direction of Chinese future carbon trading system through the analysis of “countermeasures”.