Research On The Coupling Coordination Of Urbanization And Ecosystem Health In Chongqing

Urbanization and ecosystem health interaction has become important for global sustainable development and ecological civilization construction.The excessive use of land,natural resources,and energy in the urbanization process can interfere with the ecological environment,while the health of the ecosystem can affect the quality and efficiency of urbanization.Therefore,a complex and nonlinear relationship exists between ecosystem health and urbanization,especially in the mountainous city of Chongqing,where the ecosystem components are complex,the landscape structure is three-dimensional,and the material and energy flow paths are intertwined and heterogeneous.Studying the coupling and coordination relationship between urbanization and ecosystem health,and exploring their interaction mechanisms and regulatory methods,is conducive to achieving coordinated development between the two,and is crucial for urban management and sustainable development.This article takes Chongqing as the research object and uses multi-source data from 2000 to 2020,including Chongqing Statistical Yearbook,NDVI data,land use/cover change data,and nighttime light data.Firstly,the entropy method is used to establish urbanization indicators,including population,economic,spatial,and social.Secondly,the V-O-R-S model(vigor-organization-resilience-services)is used to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of comprehensive urbanization and ecosystem health and their subsystems in Chongqing,and the coupling coordination degree model is used to explore the interaction and coupling mechanism between them.Meanwhile,the grey correlation analysis model is used to analyze the driving factors of the coordinated development between the two.Finally,the grey prediction model and ARIMA model are used to predict the changes in the coupling coordination relationship between urbanization and ecosystem health in Chongqing from 2021 to2032.The research results of this article will provide important decision-making support for Chongqing’s sustainable development strategy.The main results are as follows:(1)On a temporal scale,from 2000 to 2020,the ecological health index of Chongqing City remained at a moderate level,showing an overall increasing trend with fluctuations.Specifically,from 2000 to 2010,the ecological health index increased from 0.45 to 0.56 and then decreased to 0.54 from 2010 to 2020.During this period,the vitality value of the ecosystem increased from 0.49 to 0.79,while the organizational strength value also increased from 0.34 to 0.51.The resilience value remained around0.50,while the service value decreased from 0.59 to 0.56.From a spatial perspective,the overall levels of ecological health,vitality,organizational strength,resilience,and service in various districts and counties of Chongqing City have improved in 2000,2010,and 2020,but there are still significant regional differences.In regions with rapid urbanization,the ecological health status has significantly deteriorated,while the ecological health status in areas with high vegetation coverage,such as the southeast and northeast of Chongqing,is relatively better.(2)Considering the population,social,economic,and spatial dimensions,the level of urbanization in Chongqing has been continuously increasing from 2000 to 2020,with the comprehensive urbanization index soaring from 0.05 in 2000 to 0.34 in 2020.Specifically,the population urbanization index increased from 0.01 to 0.09,the economic urbanization index increased from 0.00 to 0.15,the spatial urbanization index increased from 0.00 to 0.15,while the social urbanization index only increased by 0.01,from 0.04 to 0.05.There still exist significant spatial imbalances in urban development,and the core areas and low-value areas are significantly affected by terrain fluctuations.(3)The coupling coordination between urbanization and ecosystem health in Chongqing shows an upward trend.In 2000,the two were in a state of moderate discoordination,but by 2020,they had risen to a moderate coordination level.However,there are still contradictions between the two,and they have not yet reached the stage of high coordination.The urbanization subsystem and its sub-components have always been at a lagging level in the interaction between the urbanization and ecosystem health subsystems,and the trajectory of their coupling coordination is on the left side of the inverted U-shaped curve,and has not reached the turning point.Therefore,in order to achieve high-quality and sustainable development,Chongqing should pursue a green development path and address the problem of spatial and temporal inequality.(4)Urbanization and ecological health in Chongqing city are closely related,with differences in correlation values among different districts and counties.The correlation value of ecological health is generally higher than that of comprehensive urbanization.Overall,the correlation value of the ecological health index(0.85)in Chongqing city is far higher than that of the comprehensive urbanization index(0.36),ranking first.It is worth noting that ecological resilience,ecological services,and economic urbanization have the most significant impact on the coupling coordination degree,while the impact of ecological organization and spatial urbanization is minimal.In terms of sustainable urbanization development,the main obstacle faced by Yuzhong District is spatial urbanization,while the other 37 districts and counties are mainly restricted by social urbanization.In terms of sustainable ecological health development,the limiting factors are mainly ecological vitality and organization.The degree of obstacles ranges from0.37 to 1,with the highest value in Wanzhou District and Chengkou County,and the lowest value in Tongnan District.(5)According to the ARIMA forecasting model,the predicted values of many districts in Chongqing are in a downward trend,and their spatial layout also shows a downward trend,which is inconsistent with Chongqing’s policies related to urbanization and the environment.In contrast,according to the analysis results of the Grey forecasting model,the predicted values of the coupling coordination degrees of various districts and counties in Chongqing from 2021 to 2032 are the lowest in Yuzhong District and Yunyang County,and the predicted values in Tongnan District,Jiangbei District,Nan’an District,Liangping District,Chengkou County,Wuxi County,and Wushan County are relatively moderate,while the predicted values of other districts and counties are higher.The overall spatial distribution of the coupling coordination degree shows a similar trend to that of 2020 and is generally on the rise,so the development mode of the Grey forecasting model is more worthy of reference.From the perspective of the predicted results,the spatial pattern of the coupling coordination degree has changed little,but the predicted values show an overall upward trend,which helps policymakers understand the development trend of Chongqing’s urbanization and environmental issues and further clarify the goals of sustainable development.