Study On Temporal And Spatial Difference,Conduction Effect And Impact Path Of Carbon Emission From Land Regulation In Chang-Zhu-Tan Area

The carbon emission caused by land use change has become the second largest reason for the increase of CO₂ in the atmosphere.In order to ensure the timely realization of carbon peak and carbon neutralization,it is necessary to adhere to the high-quality development path of ecological priority,green and low carbon,and adopt land regulation and control policies to promote carbon emission reduction.The research on the carbon emission transmission mechanism of land use and the specific path affecting land use carbon emission is still being actively explored.This paper intends to extract the main carbon source and carbon sink information in the Chang-Zhu-Tan Area according to the land use remote sensing image,calculate the carbon emissions generated by each land use type while analyzing the change characteristics,and establish a data basis for the core research,so as to analyze the temporal and spatial characteristics of land use carbon emissions.In addition,clarify the carbon emission transfer in the process of land use type transformation in Chang-Zhu-Tan Area from 1995 to2018,and clarify its specific conduction process.The Markov model is used to predict the land-use carbon emissions in 2030 and 2060.The direct influencing factors of land-use carbon emissions are determined by STIRPAT model.And the structural equation model is used to deconstruct the role of each driving factor on urban land carbon emissions and describe its influence path.The results show that:（1）from 1995 to 2018,the net carbon emission of land use in Chang-Zhu-Tan Area showed an increasing trend,from 810.84×10⁴t to 2015.41×10⁴t,and the source/sink ratio showed a fluctuating upward trend,indicating that the carbon source was increasing or the role of carbon sink was decreasing.（2）The carbon conduction effect caused by land transfer in Chang-Zhu-Tan Area in different periods is net carbon emission,among which the carbon conduction effect caused by the transfer of forest and cropland to built-up land was the most significant.（3）Based on the actual data from 1995 to 2018,it was predicted that the land-use carbon emission was on the rise.The land-use carbon emission in2030 and 2060 are predicted to be 2188.9788×10⁴t and 2646.6834×10⁴t respectively,which still has a significant gap with the realization of the"double carbon"goal.（4）The model results of exploring the influencing factors of land-use carbon emissions showed that there was a positive correlation between latent variables such as population,energy and land and land-use carbon emissions,of which the positive effect of land on land-use carbon emissions was the most intense,reaching 1.471.Economy played a negative role in land-use carbon emission,showing that the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development in the Chang-Zhu-Tan Area has achieved remarkable results.This study helps to enlighten the transmission through the intervention path of land regulation policy,and realize the precise regulation of land-use carbon emission reduction while making up for the shortcomings of existing land regulation policies.