China-EU Sea-Rail Freight Mode Change And Its Low Carbon Emission Reduction Benefit Evaluation

With the gradual emergence of ecological and environmental problems caused by greenhouse gas emissions,the global economy is moving closer to the development model of low energy consumption,low emissions and low pollution.The "dual carbon" goal proposed by China in 2020 was re-emphasized in the report of the 20 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.The "14th Five-Year Plan" Modern Logistics Development Plan pointed out that it is necessary to optimize the freight structure and increase the proportion of railway transportation.At the same time,the emissions of maritime transport have always been underestimated,and it is difficult to achieve significant carbon reduction and emission reduction in a short period of time.Coinciding with China’s "Belt and Road" initiative in 2013,China-Europe Express has provided new vitality for China’s foreign trade with Europe.The data shows that the effect of China-Europe Express in low-carbon emission reduction is better than that of international shipping.This thesis starts from the perspective of general research and conducts research based on four theoretical foundations: environmental economics,environmental cost,environmental negative externalities and life value.Firstly,the research status of China-Europe freight train and transportation industry emission reduction and low-carbon emission reduction benefit evaluation is elaborated,and the changes of China-Europe freight mode and freight volume are discussed,and the gray prediction model and exponential smoothing method are used to predict the freight volume of China-Europe train,and the reasons for the change of China-Europe sea-rail freight mode are analyzed.Then,a CETE model for measuring emissions from China-Europe marine and railway transport is constructed,and the emissions of carbon dioxide and other air pollutants from China-Europe shipping and China-Europe trains are calculated.Secondly,a low-carbon emission reduction benefit evaluation model for the change of China-Europe freight mode is constructed,and the low-carbon emission reduction benefits brought by the China-Europe Express are analyzed from four aspects: direct economic benefits,indirect economic benefits,energy-saving benefits and residents’ health benefits,and the correlation analysis model and grey correlation degree model are used to help analyze the index correlation degree in indirect economic benefits,and the absorption factor method is used to calculate the health economic benefits.Finally,the evaluation and calculation of low-carbon emission reduction benefits compared with shipping between China-Europe trains and sea freight is carried out,and the calculation results are analyzed to make suggestions for the green development of China-Europe freight from different levels.This thesis aims to compare and study the emissions of China-Europe Express and international shipping,so as to demonstrate the economic and social benefits brought to China by the reduced emissions since the opening of the China-Europe Express,and provide theoretical support for the Chinese government’s commitment to achieve the "dual carbon" goal.This thesis innovatively constructs the CETE emission calculation model of China-Europe sea-rail freight,which provides preliminary model support for the research of China-Europe freight train in low-carbon emission reduction,and also provides a methodological theory and model basis for the emission calculation in the transportation process of China-Europe shipping and China-Europe train.