| As the basic industry of the national economy,the rapid development of transportation industry not only brings great convenience to national travel and cargo transportation,but also brings some problems that can not be ignored,such as energy consumption and environmental pollution.In China,relevant departments actively try various measures to reduce carbon emissions in the transportation sector,so as to ensure that the transportation sector can achieve the goal of "carbon peak" as soon as possible.However,more attention is focused on the field of passenger transport and the electrification substitution of traditional fuel vehicles.For the freight field with high carbon emission and difficult to realize electrification,especially in the field of road freight,how to achieve effective emission reduction is a very noteworthy issue.Researchers generally believe that hydrogen energy is the best choice to decarbonize the highway freight industry.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the development path of hydrogen energy and the impact of different development paths on carbon emission reduction and carbon peak in the road freight industry.Taking the carbon peak as the research background,this paper analyzes the structure of China’s cargo transportation and the current situation of carbon emission in the freight industry,and obtains the severity of the form of carbon emission in the road freight industry and the urgency of emission reduction;This paper analyzes the current situation of transportation hydrogen energy in three aspects: technology,application cost and life cycle carbon emission,so as to provide a basis for the construction of simulation model and the study of the emission reduction effect of hydrogen energy in highway freight industry.Based on the above analysis,based on the theory of sustainable development,the theory of market failure and government intervention,and the theory of complex adaptive system,this paper makes a more systematic and comprehensive analysis on the internal mechanism of hydrogen energy development in China’s road freight industry and various market participants.On this basis,using AnyLogic simulation platform,this paper constructs an agent-based simulation model of hydrogen energy development in China’s road freight industry.Finally,from the perspective of hydrogen energy industry chain,combined with the two aspects of cost and carbon emission,on the basis of existing policies,considering technological progress,the introduction of CCUS technology,the development of green hydrogen,strengthening subsidies and other factors,the paper designs five hydrogen energy development paths.Based on the simulation results,the effects of different paths are analyzed from three aspects: the time when hydrogen fuel cell trucks enter the market,the development trend and scale,and the truck structure.In addition,the carbon emission and peak time of hydrogen energy in different stages of life cycle under each path are also analyzed from multiple angles.Through the above research,the following conclusions are drawn:(1)the introduction of CCUS technology and strengthening subsidies is the only way to achieve the goal of 1 million hydrogen fuel cell trucks in 2035;(2)Compared with the price of hydrogen fuel cell trucks,consumers are more sensitive to the price of hydrogen;(3)The heavy truck market is more suitable for the development of hydrogen energy than the light and medium truck market;(4)From the perspective of TTW stage(use stage),all paths will reach the carbon peak after 2030 and can be realized as early as 2033;(5)From the perspective of WTW stage(whole life cycle),increasing the proportion of green hydrogen and introducing CCUS technology can achieve significant carbon emission reduction,and the emission reduction effect of introducing CCUS technology is better.(6)CCUS technology is suitable for the medium and short-term development of hydrogen energy,and green hydrogen can be considered for the long term. |
