Analysis Of Risk Factors And Mechanism Of Ship Collision

Ship collision accidents have characteristics such as uncertainty in occurrence,severity of consequences,and severity of social impacts.The high incidence of ship collision accidents has become a bottleneck restricting the development of maritime traffic safety.Existing relevant research,most studies focus on maritime traffic safety as a whole,which cannot highlight the characteristics of ship collision accidents;Regarding ship collision accidents as the research object,there are shortcomings such as significant subjective influence on data sources,insufficient correlation with accidents,and low universality of research results on single events or single class factors.In response to the shortcomings of these two aspects,this dissertation takes the report of ship collision accidents as the source of knowledge,systematically and objectively analyzes the risk factors and the mechanism of risk factors in the development process of ship collision hazards,in order to provide theoretical support for preventing and resolving the risk of ship collision.The main research contents of this dissertation include:(1)Identification of ship collision risk factors based on STAMP model.Based on the safety constraints related to ship collision events in the ship collision accident report,a STAMP safety control structure for the development process of ship collision hazards was constructed in the form of a binary judgment flowchart,and 18 types of ship collision risk factors were identified.(2)Analysis of system characteristics of ship collision risk factors based on ID-I-M Model.Integrating and improving the DEMATEL,ISM,and MACMIC models(ID-I-M models),it systematically clarifies the causal,importance,hierarchical,and dependency driving relationship classification of ship collision risk factors in the development process of ship collision Hazards.(3)Coupling analysis of ship collision risk factors based on N-K model.Classify ship collision risk factors into environmental adverse risk,skill error risk,procedural error risk,and knowledge error risk,and quantify the coupling risk between these four risk factors using the N-K model.(4)Correlation analysis of ship collision risk factors based on adaptive Apriori algorithm.From the idea of data fitting,the parameters of Apriori algorithm are adaptively selected,and the effective strong association rules between ship collision risk factors are mined.To sum up,starting from "risk—accident",this dissertation establishes a set of ship collision risk factors system which is highly close to the contents of the ship collision accident report,and then obtains the data of ship collision risk factors from the ship collision accident report.On this basis,the system characteristic analysis,coupling and correlation mechanism research of ship collision risk factors are carried out.The research results of this dissertation effectively reveal the systematic characteristics and role patterns of ship collision risk factors in the development process of ship collision hazard,which can provide reference for the pre-control of ship collision risk and have practical significance for ensuring the safety of ship navigation.