Research On The Non-equilibrium Supply And Demand Of International Air Cargo Transportation

It is very important for China’s civil aviation industry to analyze and judge the supply and demand of international air cargo.The grasp of transport demand and transport supply capacity can effectively guide the civil aviation industry to organize production,and the balanced development of supply and demand is conducive to the high-quality development of the industry and the whole economy and society.There are many factors that affect the supply and demand of international air cargo,which makes the supply and demand in an unbalanced state frequently.The international air cargo supply and demand system is selected as the research object of this thesis.On the basis of analyzing and revealing the connotation of international air cargo supply and demand,this thesis establishes an index system of factors influencing international air cargo supply and demand,and uses a method for system dynamics to construct a nonequilibrium system dynamics model of international air cargo supply and demand system.By using this model,the disequilibrium degree of supply and demand of China international air cargo is judged firstly.Then,it quantitatively evaluates the impact of key indicators changes on China international air cargo market and the balance of market supply and demand.Finally,the future change trend of China international air cargo market is predicted,and the implementation effect of the supply-side policy of the civil aviation industry is simulated and simulated,and policy suggestions for the development of China international air cargo are put forward.The results show that:(1)from 2001 to 2020,the supply and demand of international air cargo in China gradually developed from extremely unbalanced to balanced.In the long run,the equilibrium state of supply and demand is only transient,the imbalance of supply and demand is normal,and the process of equilibrium change is dynamic.From 2001 to 2004,the effective supply of China international air cargo was far less than the effective demand.From2004 to 2011,the effective supply and demand of China’s international air cargo reached a relative balance.From 2012 to 2020,the growth rate of effective demand for international air cargo in China was significantly higher than that of effective supply,and the effective demand for international air cargo in China was greater than that of effective supply during this period.(2)The Proportion of Air Transport Investment,Proportion of All-cargo Aircraft Transport Volume and Growth Rate of Aircraft Capacity can significantly affect China international air cargo supply capacity.The best proportion of China air transport investment is 1.3‰,the best proportion of full-cargo aircraft transport is 33%,and the best annual growth rate of civil aviation aircraft capacity is 16%.(3)It is estimated that by 2025,China international cargo and mail volume will reach 2.89 million tons,and the imbalance between supply and demand will continue to expand.In the case of the implementation of the supply-side policy,that is,when the proportion of air transport investment,the amount of freighter transportation volume and the annual growth rate of the aircraft can be used to achieve optimal,it is expected that by 2025,China’s international air cargo throughput will reach 3.01 million tons,and the supply and demand of China’s international air cargo will be relatively balanced.