Cooperative Evacuation Study For The Opening And Closing Ceremonies Of Great Sporting Occasions

The evacuation of the opening and closing ceremonies of great sporting occasions involves various stakeholders,with large and concentrated traffic flow,and requires very strict traffic protection.In view of the uniqueness of the demand for the evacuation of the opening and closing ceremonies of great sporting occasions,this paper adopted the collaborative evacuation organization strategy to optimize the evacuation scheme of the spectators and improve the efficiency of the evacuation of large-scale events by taking public transportation as the main responsibility mode,and provided organizational ideas and technical methods for the future related research.In this paper,an analysis framework for multi-modal dispersal schemes was established by studying the spatial and temporal patterns of spectator dispersal and traffic flow characteristics,and summarizing the experience of traffic organization methods.Taking urban rail transit as the main evacuation mode,the cooperative organization optimization method of pedestrian traffic and subway and the cooperative organization optimization method of ferry buses and subway were studied,and a relatively complete cooperative evacuation transportation organization scheme was formed.Finally,a case study was conducted on the background of Beijing Winter Olympics.The main research contents and results are as follows:(1)The traffic organization characteristics of the opening and closing ceremonies of great sporting occasions were summarized and analyzed;the pedestrian flow arrival model of spectators arriving at the target station was constructed based on the spectators’ dispersal behavior and the spatial-temporal laws of passenger flow,which provided the basis for the subsequent evacuation organization of spectators;the main points of the dispersal traffic organization were summarized.It also proposed an analysis framework based on a multi-transportation scheme.Based on the significant role played by large-capacity and high-efficiency urban rail transit in evacuation organization practice,urban rail transit was taken as the main mode of passenger flow evacuation.(2)A collaborative optimization model of pedestrian traffic control and subway station flow restriction was constructed.Based on the analysis of the impact of sudden large passenger flow on urban rail transit,by changing the distribution of pedestrians arriving at subway stations and combining with traffic limiting measures,and aiming at the shortest weighted evacuation time of audience,the process of connecting the spectators to the subway by foot after the event was optimized.An optimized PSO solution algorithm was designed by introducing adaptive weight adjustment and adaptive variation.The convergence performance of the algorithm was fast and effective,and the global search and local search ability was balanced.(3)A model for optimizing the operation organization of the ferry bus connecting to the subway was constructed.Based on the analysis of the utility and key points of the ferry bus in the evacuation organization,the ferry bus operation organization scheme was designed with the objective of minimizing the time cost of the spectators and the operation cost of ferry buses,so as to realize the coordination between the ferry bus and the subway.The NSGA-II solution algorithm was improved and designed in terms of initial screening of chromosomes,construction of fitness functions and non-dominated solution sets,and evolutionary operators,resulting in a variety of reasonable ferry operation options for decision makers to choose from.(4)The collaborative optimization method proposed in this paper was applied to design an evacuation scheme for the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics.The results showed that after adopting the collaborative scheme,the weighted per capita evacuation time of the spectators connecting the subway by foot decreased by 6.04%,the waiting time outside the station decreased by 47.04%,the peak number of waiting people outside the subway station and the length of the traffic limiting organization decreased significantly,which indicated that the crowding situation outside the station was effectively reduced and the evacuation time was reduced.The time cost of the spectators taking the ferry bus to connect to the subway was reduced by 72.48% and the operating cost of the ferry bus was reduced by 3.59%,which proved that the scheme effectively optimized the evacuation process of the spectators taking the ferry bus to connect to the subway and reduced the operation cost of the ferry bus.The sensitivity analysis showed the stability and reliability of the model.This paper totally has 47 figures,22 tables and 83 references.