Research On Schedule Risk Management Of Municipal Road PPP Projects From The Perspective Of SPV Companies

PPP model in China is currently in its infancy and development stage,due to the municipal road PPP project social capital party investment is large,the construction cycle is long,in time and space with extension,its internal factors and the external environment is very complex interaction,so that the risk it faces is much higher than the general project.Municipal road PPP projects from project identification,project preparation,project procurement,project implementation in to the project transfer involves a number of participants,facing different risks,the risk tolerance capacity is also strong and weak,risk response strategies are also different.In municipal road PPP projects,the social capital party,as the controlling shareholder of the SPV company and the actual manager of the project execution stage and handover stage,is mostly a traditional construction enterprise,lacking management experience in municipal road PPP project investment and financing management,survey and design management,operation and maintenance management,etc.It is difficult to predict various progress risk factors in the PPP project execution stage and handover stage,therefore,from the SPV Therefore,it is important to study the schedule risk of municipal road PPP projects from the perspective of SPV companies.This thesis uses literature analysis,questionnaire survey method,AHP(hierarchical analysis method),entropy value method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to construct a progress risk evaluation index system and model for municipal road PPP projects from the perspective of SPV companies,and verifies the feasibility of the evaluation index system and model through engineering examples.Its main research contents are specified as follows.Firstly,it introduces the research purpose,research significance,research content and research methods of schedule risk of municipal road PPP projects from the perspective of SPV companies,and sorts out the characteristics of municipal road PPP projects,the characteristics of SPV companies in PPP mode,the characteristics and classification of schedule risk of municipal road PPP projects,the risk management process,etc.,the implementation process of PPP projects,the common methods of risk identification and evaluation related to The theories and the current situation of domestic and foreign research,laying the theoretical foundation for the study of schedule risk of municipal road PPP projects from the perspective of SPV companies.Secondly,a preliminary risk list was established by using the literature analysis method to sort out the schedule risk factors of municipal road PPP projects from the perspective of SPV companies,and then the schedule risk of municipal road PPP projects from the perspective of SPV companies was screened by means of a questionnaire survey on the importance of risk factors,and then the schedule risk index system of municipal road PPP projects from the perspective of SPV companies was determined.Finally,the AHP-entropy fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for municipal road PPP projects from the perspective of SPV companies was constructed through mathematical methods such as AHP,entropy value and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,and a municipal road PPP project(case)was evaluated and analyzed,and the weight distribution of the evaluation project schedule risk indicators and the comprehensive score of the project schedule risk at each stage were given,and based on the weight distribution of the risk at each stage Based on the distribution of risk weights and evaluation scores of each stage,the risk response strategy is proposed.This thesis further enriches the research results related to risk management of municipal road PPP projects,and provides reference and theoretical basis for SPV companies to manage schedule risks in municipal road PPP projects.