Research On Comprehensive Evaluation Of General Contractor’s Cost Risk Factors For Highway EPC Project

Due to the particularity of highway projects,the general contractor of highway EPC project is constrained by many external factors such as the owner,the construction site related political and legal environment,a third party,and force majeure.Different internal and external conditions will lead to different cost risks for the general contractor.In this paper,the cost risk factors of general contractors of highway EPC projects are studied.By building with pertinence,applicability and the cost of comprehensive risk evaluation index system,using the AHP analytic hierarchy process（AHP）and grey correlation method to analyze the index system of risk factors,and combined with engineering example,the jing will cycle highway rebuilding engineering construction（EPC）all the cost of the general contractor risk fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.The reference value of cost risk management of this system method is verified.For the general contractor reasonable cost risk management,cost control,improve project profitability,is of great significance.First of all,in-depth field investigation,collect and summarize potential cost and risk factors faced by the general contractor in EPC highway projects by means of literature review,case analysis of similar projects,expert interviews and other methods,and conduct hierarchical analysis based on the status and role of the general contractor in EPC highway projects.The cost risk evaluation index system of the general contractor of highway EPC project is constructed.The index system consists of 6 first-level indicators,17 second-level indicators and 45 third-level indicators.Then,the AHP analytic hierarchy process is used to analyze the weights of the first-level,second-level and third-level indicators of the total contractor cost risk evaluation system of highway EPC project constructed in this paper.Then,the grey relational degree method is used to analyze the correlation degree of the third-level indicators of the road route design evaluation.The expert scoring method is used to score the correlation degree of the three-level factors to the cost risk occurrence of the general contractor.The correlation degree of the three-level indicators to the cost risk occurrence of the general contractor in the construction process of highway EPC project is calculated and sorted.The index factors ranking high in the correlation degree are consistent with the key factors with high weight obtained by the analytic hierarchy process,and the ranking from high to low are all insufficient design capability or low design level C₁₂₃,health emergency C₅₁₃,and unreasonable tender offer C₁₁₁.Finally,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation based on AHP is used to build the evaluation model,and the expert evaluation method is introduced to establish the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of the total contractor’s cost risk of highway EPC project.At the same time,taking the EPC project of Jinghui Highway as an example,the cost risk probability of the general contractor in this project is comprehensively evaluated,and the occurrence coefficient of cost risk is 0.3547,which belongs to the medium risk level.Through the study of cost risk factors of the general contractor of highway EPC project,the relevant risk assessment model is built to provide guidance for the general contractor of highway EPC project to make risk control decisions,so as to reduce the probability of cost risk occurrence.At the same time,other general contractors of highway EPC projects can rely on the cost risk assessment system for general contractors of highway EPC projects proposed in this paper to identify and evaluate the cost risk factors,providing effective reference and practical experience for their cost risk management.