An Empirical Study On The Impact Of The U.S. Direct Investment In China On Sino-US Container Freight Flow

Since the 1980 s,the heat of Foreign Direst Investment(FDI)in international economic cooperation has been rising.The United States FDI in China has promoted the deep integration of Sino-US economic and trade relations.International trade caused by FDI has driven the development of international logistics.Especially for China and the United States,which have strong trade complementarity and huge trade volume,the perfect access of international logistics channels is the necessary guarantee for the successful completion of international trade.The types of goods trade between China and the United States fit the characteristics of two countries’ industrial structure.In the long-distance transportation of goods,container shipping bears more than 80% of the transportation volume with its convenience and applicability.The capital transfer from the United States to China is not only reflected in the transnational flow of goods.In essence,FDI promotes the industrial transfer between countries.Therefore,under the background of the integration of investment and trade,it is of great significance to study the impact of the United States FDI in China on Sino-US container freight flow.Based on the analysis of the stock of the U.S.FDI in China,and the volume of container freight flow between China and the United States,this paper concludes that there are three kinds of effects of investment on container freight flow,namely,the U.S.export effect,import and export substitution effect and reverse export effect.Based on the statistical analysis of the structure and flow direction of container goods between Sino-US,it is found that the majority of container goods between China and the United States are manufactured goods.The empirical analysis is divided into two parts.Firstly,by using multivariate regression model,through cointegration test,error correction model,impulse response function and variance decomposition,this paper analyzes the relationship between the volume of import and export container freight flow between China and the United States with several economic variables such as the U.S.FDI in China.The results show that the U.S.FDI in China,China’s dependence on the U.S.foreign trade,and the U.S.dependence on China’s foreign trade have positive effects on China’s exports to the U.S.or the U.S.exports to China’s container freight flow,and the growth rate of the three variables is positive.The growth of the U.S.CPI can promote China’s exports to the United States,but the growth rate is negative,The rise of China’s CPI will inhibit the U.S.exports to China,and the inhibit growth rate is positive.,while the container freight index will inhibit the growth rate of container exports in Sino-US and the inhibitory effect is negative.From the variance decomposition,we can see that the U.S.FDI in China has a major contribution rate to the container exports in Sino-US.Secondly,the paper establishes an Almon distribution lag model and selects the FDI data of American manufacturing industry in China to verify the impact of investment on container freight flow in Sino-US,and the empirical results show that FDI is the Granger cause of container export in Sino-US,and vice versa;The significant promotion effect of the U.S.manufacturing FDI in China on the U.S.exports of Chinese containers lags behind the first and second phases,and the significant promotion effect on Chinese exports of the U.S.containers lags behind the second and third phases.From the analysis,we can see that the lag effect of FDI is due to the three effects of investment on container freight flow: the U.S.export,import and export substitution and reverse export.This paper enriches the research theories system of the relationship between economy,trade and logistics,and provides a theoretical reference for the transformation and upgrading of China’s port,shipping and other international logistics fields following the transformation of FDI investment orientation in the future.