Empirical Study On The Impact Of Sino-US Economic And Trade War On Container Shipping

By the global economic integration,transportation is an important factor to promote foreign trade and affect a country’s economy.After many years,the container shipping become the main method of transportation,with its safety,convenience and economy,which be used in foreign trade.According to the statistics,two-thirds of the world trade is finished through sea transport,of which 80% is the shipping container.The foreign trade is the fundamental needs of the container shipping,the container shipping is the substantial demand for foreign trade,without the support of foreign trade,it is difficult to promote the development of container shipping,the two are complementary to each other and make each other’s achievements.Since China joined to the WTO,the foreign trade develops rapidly,especially the increasing trade with the United States,the United States has become China’s largest exporter,China has become the United States’ third largest importer.In Sino-US trade,the suitable containerized cargo was 90%,and the transport of goods is normally by container shipping.However,frequent trade between China and the United States,raised the friction on both sides.Rapid development of China’s foreign trade and growth of economy,threat the status of the United States in the world economy.The United States proposed the trade protectionism in early 2018,the United States decided to increase the import tariff of the goods which source produced in China to protect their own interests.China actively responded,terminated the import tariff concession and raised the import tariff on the goods source produced in the United States.As the two sides retaliation tariff measures developed,Sino-US economic and trade war grows.The United States and China is the largest and the second-largest economy in the world,the both sides fully use each other’s advantage,economic complementarity and amalgamation,the trade war between the two countries not only directly affect the trade between China and the United States,but also not be conducive to the healthy and rapid development of economy.The change of trade volume and economic fluctuation will directly affect the demand of container shipping,bring the volume and price pressure on container shipping.The continuation and escalation of the trade war will have a profound impact on the container shipping setup.As the famous economist Mankiw said,"the partial value of the trade comes from the improvement of transportation".The economic growth of China is inseparable from the development of the foreign trade,which is indivisible from the container shipping.The container shipping of China is large but not strong,it is a critical moment of building super container shipping.Studying the impact of Sino-US economic and trade war on the container shipping is accurately useful for the container shipping’s setup and making it guard for China’s economy.Based on the literature review,this paper starts from the current situation of Sino-US economic and trade and the container shipping,analyses the economic impact on the Sino-US economic and trade war,analyses the correlation between Chinese economy and container shipping,and deeply studies the impact on the Sino-US economic and trade war on container shipping.By the gross domestic product(GDP),the imports and exports with United States,the consumer price index,the RMB exchange rate and other economic indicators,through ADF test,Co-integration test and Granger test,and establish regression model,the quantitative analysis of the factors which influence the container shipping capacity and freight rate,the empirical study of the influence of economic fluctuations caused by Sino-US trade war on container shipping.