Research On Risk Management Of Old Residential Area Renovation Based On AHP-fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluatio

With the continuous changes in China’s housing reform policies,the comprehensive renovation of old residential areas has become one of the main contents of engineering construction in recent years.Currently,the comprehensive renovation of old urban residential areas in China has been carried out in a large area nationwide.The state requires all provinces,municipalities,and autonomous regions to strive to complete the renovation project of old residential areas completed before the end of 2000 during the "14th Five Year Plan" period,which marks a new journey in our country’s urban renewal work.There is a significant difference between the management of comprehensive renovation projects in old residential areas and new construction projects.The main reason is that most comprehensive renovation projects in old residential areas adopt a household based renovation mode,and residents still need to live normally in the reconstructed buildings during construction.How to ensure the safety of residents during the renovation period is an important problem in the comprehensive renovation project management of old residential areas.Residents have become a key risk source affecting the comprehensive renovation project of old residential areas.This article takes Project A as the research object to conduct risk management research.Firstly,the literature research method and the Delphi method were used to identify project risk factors.Through risk identification,five main risk sources were obtained,including 30 important risk factors.Secondly,the analytic hierarchy process is used to determine the weight of various risk factors in the project risk,and the fuzzy comprehensive analysis method is used to quantitatively evaluate the risk factors.The comprehensive risk value of the project is calculated to be 0.3176,which determines that the comprehensive risk is medium risk.Finally,based on the evaluation results of the A project,the project response strategy is developed.First,the A project risk management response method is developed,Specific risk response measures are formulated for 23 risk factors with a medium risk level or above or a weight within the top70% to ensure the smooth progress of the project.Through the risk management study of Project A,it is found that the risk of the comprehensive renovation project of the old residential area runs through the entire life cycle of the project and is different from the management risk of the new construction project.It cannot be taken for granted that the comprehensive renovation project of the old residential area belongs to a low risk project.Project A is very representative.In the subsequent management of the renovation project for old residential areas,the owner,designer,and constructor can refer to the research results of this project to predict and analyze the project risk level in advance and formulate project risk response plans.