The Risk Identification And Risk Valuation For Artificial Islands Of Shengli Oil Discharge Terminal Dock

In recent years, artificial islands are widely adopted in oil and gas exploitation, transportation and tourism. In practice, artificial island do play an important part in relieving the stress caused by shortage of land in industry and urban construction. However, as the heat of constructing artificial island is going on, the risks underlying don't cause the due attention of the decision makers, designers and constructors. Consequently, there are varieties of risks we may have ignored. The establishment and application of index system of the risk assessment of artificial islands will contribute to risk defense and risk elimination, and then accelerate the process of exploring a more reasonable and effective way to evaluate the risks, promoting the whole layout and planning thing and Management system reform of artificial islands.The thesis discusses the conceptual framework used in my research and the relevant theories at the beginning, and gets a overall grasp of the construction of artificial islands. In the second place, it makes an in-depth introduction of the theory concerning risk identification and risk valuation and analyses the advantage of adopting the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method (FCE) based on the AHP in risk assessment. Finally, It develops the risk evaluation index system for Shengli Oil discharge terminal island. The paper conducts risk evaluation of Shengli Oil discharge terminal island by the FCE method based on the AHP, utilizes the AHP to decide weights of each index in this system and then conduct the FCE evaluation hierarchically. During the weights deciding process, it achieves judgment matrix by the expert scoring method and the conducts the level ranking and consistency check. The scores of each remark fall into five ranks. It uses the expert scoring method to build the evaluation matrix and achieves the risk condition of the Shengli Oil discharge terminal island constructing program by one level and two of the FCE. As for the results of risk assessment, this thesis raise corresponding measures to lower, avoid and make room for risks. All the calculating work involved is processed by the MATLAB.Through the risk assessment of artificial islands of Shengli Oil discharge terminal island, the thesis further improves the risk theory of engineering construction and explores a scientifically-sound way to plan, develop, construct, and manage artificial islands. And at the same time, it improves the project management theory by exploring how people can establish a sound risk assessment index system of artificial islands.