Research On Meteorological Disaster Risk Management System Of UHV Transmission Line

UHV transmission lines run through different geographical environments,and will be directly affected by meteorological factors,inevitably affected by local temperature changes,strong storms,icing,and floods that may be encountered when crossing rivers and lakes.Bad weather,extreme weather,lightning strikes,and natural pollutants will destroy or reduce the stability of overhead lines,resulting in the destruction of important equipment in the power grid,and even causing large-scale power outages.How to deal with meteorological disasters better and how to obtain meteorological information more accurately is one of the important problems that need to be solved urgently in the power system.The related theories of power grid meteorological safety and risk prevention and control have become the research focus in the power related fields.In this paper,the meteorological disaster risk management process of transmission line is introduced to cope with the negative impact of increasingly frequent meteorological disasters on power grid,better standardize the safety risk management of power grid,improve the operation state of power system and optimize the prevention and control path of meteorological disasters in power system.Firstly,this paper analyzes the statistical data of transmission line faults and meteorological conditions.The data show that the weather-induced line faults account for a large proportion of all line faults,and the trend of meteorological changes is cyclical and fluctuating.Based on the characteristics that the meteorological disaster risks of transmission lines can be predicted in advance,the risk prevention and control strategy of power grid is put forward,the meteorological disaster risk management process of transmission lines is constructed,the judgment method of meteorological risk level is given,and the meteorological data required for risk management of transmission lines are pointed out.Secondly,aiming at the problem that the microterrain weather forecast information is difficult to obtain,a weather forecast idea based on SVR is put forward,which uses the regional historical weather statistical information to forecast the future.By analyzing the correlation among various meteorological factors,the dependent variable and the effect variable in the forecast model are selected,and then the data are trained and used for future weather forecast.On the parameter selection of SVR,the grid search optimization method is adopted,and the minimum mean square error is taken as the search target.Through crossvalidation,this paper takes the meteorological data recorded by Meteorological Observatory as a sample for example test,which proves the feasibility of SVR in meteorological forecast.Then,in order to evaluate the meteorological risk characteristics of transmission lines,the evaluation indexes are used to describe the temporal and spatial characteristics of meteorological risks of transmission lines,and each index is analyzed with examples.In order to describe the losses caused by transmission line faults to the power grid,a transmission line fault loss model is constructed,and various types of losses are converted into money for measurement.In order to identify the regional key meteorological disasters for specialized management,the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)was adopted to sort the regional meteorological disasters.Finally,the formation mechanism,action rules and characteristics of various meteorological faults of transmission lines are analyzed and explored,the existing fault prevention and control methods are evaluated,and the improvement ideas and measures for the existing fault prevention and control schemes are put forward.